A fresh surge of the westerly winds will intensify the monsoons in Kerala, Karnataka and the ghat areas of Tamil Nadu over 48 hours , while a dip in pressure in the Bay of Bengal will bring extremely heavy rain to Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh over 24 hours , the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said on Monday.
Despite heavy rains in many part of India that has led to flooding and landslides, India’s monsoon deficit has gone up from 7% on August 1 to 10% on August 13. Kerala, however, has moved from normal to 20% excessive rainfall over last week.
Over the next 24 hours, “cyclonic circulation” or swirling winds associated with the pressure dip is likely to intensify in the Bay of Bengal will bring in heavy rain to eastern and northern India till Wednesday, including over isolated areas in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, said the five-day forecast.
Rainfall in Kerala is likely to intensify over Tuesday, with most areas receiving heavy to very heavy rainfall till Wednesday, even as 11 of the state’s 14 districts battle flooding that has killed 40 persons and damaged more than 20,000 houses.
“A low pressure area is forming in Northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbouring areas, which will bring rain across north and east India. Whenever there is a low pressure system, the Southwest monsoon winds gather speed and try to reach the low pressure area. This results in the moist winds crashing into the Western ghats and forming rain clouds over western part of the country, including Kerala,” said Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra, senior IMD scientist.
Heavy to very heavy rains are likely in Odisha on Tuesday and Uttar Pradesh till Wednesday, the forecast said.
Heavy rains in isolated areas in Manipur and Meghalaya are likely to bring down the large rain deficits of -65% and -45% respectively.
The forecasts of the private weather forecaster Skymet concur with IMD. “The low pressure system in Bay of Bengal will increase rainfall in several states including Kerala, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh as predicted by the IMD,” said GP Sharma, president of meteorology at Skymet.
Rough to very rough sea conditions are also likely in the west-central and south-western Arabian sea, and fishermen have been advised not to venture into these areas, said IMD.