GoI may hold polls in J&K after 2024 Lok Sabha elections

As the Election Commission of India is yet to announce any date for the Assembly elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, political pundits say the uncertainty over holding of elections could prolong and happen only after 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the perception among political observers is that the BJP will try to consolidate its position in the state by getting other political parties in the state to mobilise their cadres for long, expecting that elections will happen soon which would consume them financially and emotionally.

There is also resentment among a section of political leaders in the Union Territory that the elections will only be held when the BJP knows that they now could win the elections or at least have enough winning allies to form the government. However, according to a source, National Conference, one of a major parties in the state, is confident that it could pull off a resounding victory on majority seats, while its focus will be to get 60 of them.
Although politicians in the state are wary about the speculation, a group of them also believe that elections can happen anytime soon in the first half of 2023.

A senior leader from the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) said, “I see no reasons why the elections should be delayed because the electoral rolls will be revised by the end of this month. And since there is no less than the Home minister and Prime Minister saying it that after electoral rolls, we will have elections, there is no reason to think otherwise.”

Tanvir Sadiq, Jammu Kashmir National conference chief spokesperson and advisor to Omer Abdullah, told The Sunday Guardian, “The only thing is that if elections are declared, momentum will increase; otherwise, the contact with workers is always there, I don’t know about other parties, but I would have understood it if we would have gone into election mode and started our campaign, but then, we would have understood this point that the workers would be tired.”
Sadiq added, “Our party is always ready because our organisational elections and organisational structure are such that we have to hold meetings now and then in every constituency. In case the elections are announced, momentum will only increase, otherwise, our routine process is always there and will be there and it is not because of elections.”

As per several assessments done by political parties, the post-delimitation Assembly seats, which had 6 seats added in Jammu province and 1 in Kashmir, are believed to favour BJP in the upcoming elections. An expert said, “The strong presence of the saffron party in Jammu province cannot be overlooked and there is also a mammoth presence of half a dozen anti-BJP parties there, which would also eventually help the saffron dispensation to win additional seats as the anti-BJP votes will split.”