Kashmir's Political Chessboard: PDP's Role in NC-Congress Bid for Power

Kashmir’s Political Chessboard: PDP’s Role in NC-Congress Bid for Power

From Engineer Rashid’s party to Jamaat-backed candidates, Apni Party to Peoples Conference, the poll results Tuesday would determine fates of several key Valley players

With most exit polls predicting a hung Assembly in the Jammu and Kashmir elections, all the contenders are bracing for its outcome on Tuesday. Here are five key factors related to the Valley fray, which may have a bearing on poll results besides impacting the formation of the new government.

NC-Congress alliance

The National Conference (NC) and the Congress have jointly fought the J&K Assembly elections. Both are part of the Opposition INDIA alliance at the national level. Under their seat-sharing pact, the NC contested 51 seats out of J&K’s 90 as compared to the Congress’s 32 , with both partners also opting for “friendly fights” in five other constituencies. The NC-Congress alliance left one seat each for the CPI(M)’s Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami in the Kashmir region and for the J&K National Panthers Party in the Jammu division.

Although the NC-Congress combine is being widely considered to be in pole position, with the exit polls giving it an edge despite their forecast of a hung House, this is to be seen if the alliance secures enough seats to form a government or whether it would need support from other parties or Independents.

PDP factor

The stakes are very high in the elections for the Mehbooba Mufti-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In the previous Assembly polls in 2014, the PDP had emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats. The party had then forged an alliance with the BJP to form a coalition government, but the BJP withdrew its support to it in June 2018 following which J&K has been under the Central rule. After the abrogation of Article 370, that gave special status to J&K, in August 2019, the PDP has also seen a split.

In the current polls, the PDP could play a significant role in the event of the NC-Congress alliance falling short of an absolute majority. As a constituent of the INDIA bloc, the PDP may be a natural ally for the alliance in a hung scenario, but it would face resistance from the NC which has been its key rival in the Valley. The NC’s unwillingness to cede any space to the PDP had led to the INDIA bloc not sharing seats with the party, forcing it to go solo in the polls.

Engineer Rashid’s party

In the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year, Engineer Rashid sprang a surprise when he defeated two state stalwarts — NC vice-president and ex-chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Peoples Conference (PC) chief Sajad Lone — to clinch the Baramulla seat. Rashid, who contested the polls from Tihar jail, secured a lead in 15 of the 18 Assembly segments of the Baramulla constituency. Rashid has since been out on bail, with his Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) fielding its candidates as Independents from over 34 seats across Kashmir.

The AIP also announced a “strategic poll alliance” with a faction of the banned outfit Jamaat-e-Islami, which is backing 10 candidates in the Valley as Independents. While Rashid was expected to be an “X factor” in the elections, the allegations levelled by his rivals that he has been a “BJP proxy” may have dented his party’s prospects.

Other smaller parties and Independents

The future of smaller parties like Altaf Bukhari’s Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) and the PC would be determined by the poll results. A former PDP leader, Bukhari had founded his breakaway party in 2020. He is seen in political circles as an alleged “proxy of the BJP” in the Valley. However, his party has failed to expand its footprint so far, with these polls being crucial for its survival.

The exit polls have indicated that the BJP may be able to retain its ground in the Jammu division. If the Apni Party and the PC also put up a good performance and win several seats, they along with some Independent winners may give a fillip to the BJP’s bid to form a government depending on its tally.

Key contests and seats

Apart from contesting from his family bastion of Ganderbal, Omar Abdullah is also fighting from another seat, Budgam. Omar had faced an upset in the Assembly polls twice earlier – in Ganderbal in 2002 and in Sonawar (now Lal Chowk) in 2014.

In Budgam, Omar is up against the PDP’s Shia face Aga Muntazir Mehdi, who is also a cousin of the NC’s Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah. The seat has a sizeable number of Shia voters who had earlier rallied behind Ruhullah. It is to be seen whether they again do the same or their votes get split between the two candidates.

Other key nominees in the fray include the J&K Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC) president Tariq Hameed Karra, who is contesting from Central Shalteng in Srinagar, and Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti and Waheed Parra of the PDP, who are contesting from the Bijbehara and Pulwama seats respectively.

Bukhari, Lone, who is also contesting two seats, ex-JKPCC chief Ghulam Ahmad Mir, and Engineer Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khurshid Ahmad are among other prominent candidates.

Kulgam is seeing a keen contest between sitting CIP(M) MLA Tarigami supported by the NC-Congress alliance and the Jamaat-backed nominee Sayar Ahmad Reshi. This had been an erstwhile stronghold of the Jamaat, whose candidate Abdul Razak Mir had won it in the 1972 and 1987 polls. Jamaat had stayed away from the elections since 1987 until now.

If the BJP has pinned its hope on any Kashmir constituency, it is Gurez, a frontier seat located on the Line of Control with Pakistan, which has a little over 21,000 voters. Gurez is witnessing a close fight between the BJP’s Faqeer Mohammad Khan and the NC’s Nazir Ahmad Khan – old rivals who have both won the seat with narrow margins in the past.

The Baramulla seat in North Kashmir has the highest number of contestants, 25, which include former deputy CM Muzaffar Hussain Baig. The 78-year-old former PDP leader, Baig is contesting as an Independent this time. Source

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