Jammu & Kashmir at a Climate Crossroads
By : Javid Amin | June 9, 2025
Srinagar, June 9 – Jammu & Kashmir is staring at a profound ecological crisis as scientific satellite imaging reveals a staggering loss of forest area equivalent to nearly two-thirds of Srinagar’s urban expanse over the past two decades. This forest degradation is directly linked to the rise in extreme temperature events and is fueling what climate scientists now call the “Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect”—where urban regions become significantly warmer than their rural surroundings due to human activities and environmental degradation.
Record-Breaking Temperatures: A Sign of Systemic Environmental Decline
In 2024 alone, six meteorological stations in Jammu & Kashmir recorded their highest monthly maximum temperatures in 123 years—five separate times within the first half of the year. This data, part of the State of India’s Environment Report released on June 5, reflects a disturbing national trend of rising temperature extremes across India, with J&K among the worst-hit regions.
Other states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, and West Bengal also reported historic temperature spikes, but J&K’s shift is particularly alarming due to its traditionally cool climate and mountainous terrain. These changes suggest deep disruptions in the Himalayan region’s delicate ecological balance.
Deforestation and Urbanization: The Hidden Drivers
Jammu & Kashmir has lost approximately 21.2 thousand hectares (212 sq km) of tree cover from 2001 to 2023—roughly 0.39% of its total tree cover, according to Global Forest Watch data. To visualize, this is akin to clearing 72% of Srinagar’s 294 sq km area or nearly double the size of Jammu’s 112 sq km urban spread.
The forest depletion is not random—it is concentrated in and around urban centers like Srinagar and Jammu. The drivers are manifold:
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Expanding residential colonies
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Mega infrastructure projects like the Srinagar Ring Road, which alone led to the felling of over 1.10 lakh privately owned trees
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Commercial land conversion and haphazard development, often bypassing environmental impact assessments
This unregulated urban sprawl is replacing natural green buffers with impermeable concrete and asphalt surfaces, exacerbating heat absorption during the day and heat retention at night.
Understanding the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect
The UHI effect occurs when natural vegetation is replaced by dense built environments, reducing shade and evapotranspiration—the cooling process by which plants release water vapor. This leads to:
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Higher surface and air temperatures during the day
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Sustained heat during nighttime due to lack of cooling vegetation
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Increased energy consumption, as people use more air-conditioning
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Heightened health risks, particularly heatstroke and respiratory illnesses
According to a nationwide study of 89 Indian cities, there is a direct correlation between the proportion of impermeable surfaces and the intensity of UHI-induced heatwaves.
In cities like Srinagar and Jammu, the effect is compounded by the loss of wetlands and natural drainage systems, which previously moderated urban temperatures and prevented heat entrapment.
Why Trees Matter: More Than Just Green Cover
Trees are not passive landscape features; they are active climate regulators. Here’s how:
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Evapotranspiration cools the environment by converting water to vapor
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Canopy shade reduces direct solar radiation on buildings and roads
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Carbon sequestration mitigates greenhouse gas levels
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Soil stabilization prevents erosion and urban flooding
The destruction of forest ecosystems not only erodes these benefits but also accelerates microclimatic changes, disrupting local rainfall patterns and biodiversity corridors.
A Broader Climate Emergency
J&K’s forest loss must also be understood in the context of broader climate change indicators:
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In August 2024, the region recorded an 80% rainfall deficit, impacting rivers like the Jhelum, which is already struggling with low flow and rising sedimentation
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Glacial retreat in the Himalayas is accelerating, threatening water security for agriculture and hydroelectricity
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Extreme weather events, including flash floods, cloudbursts, and drought spells, are increasing in frequency and intensity
According to NASA, Earth experienced its hottest June–August period in recorded history in 2023—J&K is now witnessing the downstream effects of this global warming trend.
Urgent Steps Forward: Recommendations for J&K Policymakers and Citizens
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Enforce a moratorium on further tree felling for urban development until full Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are conducted.
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Accelerate afforestation and rewilding projects, especially in heat-vulnerable urban zones.
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Integrate green infrastructure in planning—like vertical gardens, green roofs, urban forests, and bio-swales.
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Restore wetlands and water bodies that naturally regulate microclimates.
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Strengthen climate resilience by investing in early warning systems and heat action plans tailored for the Himalayas.
Temperature Records Shattered Across J&K
The State of India’s Environment 2025 Report, released on World Environment Day (June 5), paints a stark picture of how India’s climate is spiraling. Jammu & Kashmir stands among the most affected regions:
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Six weather stations across J&K recorded 123-year-high monthly temperatures—not just once, but across five different months in 2024.
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This places J&K alongside heat-vulnerable states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, with only Kerala reporting more months (10) of broken temperature records.
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The trend underscores atmospheric instability and ecosystem fragility—no longer isolated to the plains, but now creeping deep into the Western Himalayas.
“The frequency of temperature extremes is no longer cyclical—it’s structural. We’re in a new climate regime,” says Dr. Tauseef Ahmad, a researcher in regional climate modeling at NIT Srinagar.
Losing the Natural Coolers: Tree Cover Decline in J&K
According to Global Forest Watch (GFW) data:
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J&K lost 21,200 hectares (212 sq km) of tree cover between 2001 and 2023—a 0.39% decrease in the region’s total green footprint.
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The loss in 2023 alone stood at 112 hectares of natural forest.
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Major urban development projects, like the Srinagar Ring Road, contributed heavily—over 1.1 lakh trees were felled, most of them privately owned.
To visualise the scale:
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That’s 72% of Srinagar’s 294 sq km urban area cleared of trees, or
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Almost double the area of Jammu city’s 112 sq km urban expanse.
Urban Heat Islands: The New Climate Hazard in Srinagar & Jammu
As green cover disappears, Srinagar and Jammu are emerging as classic cases of Urban Heat Island (UHI) syndrome—urban cores where heat is trapped between concrete and asphalt, and nights offer little relief.
How UHI works:
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Concrete and asphalt absorb and radiate heat far more than vegetated areas.
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Trees provide cooling through evapotranspiration—a natural process of releasing moisture that helps regulate temperature.
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Without trees, nighttime cooling drops drastically, keeping cities hot even after sunset.
“Cities are turning into climate pressure cookers,” says Anjum Wani, a civil engineer involved in Srinagar’s flood and climate adaptation planning. “And tree cover loss is turning up the heat.”
Scientific Findings: The Urban-Rural Heat Gap Is Widening
Multiple Indian and international studies confirm a strong correlation between heatwave intensity and urban tree loss:
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A 2022 study on UHI in Indian cities found that urban zones experienced 1°C to 6°C higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas, largely due to:
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Loss of wetlands and green spaces
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Increase in impermeable surfaces like roads, rooftops, and construction zones
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An analysis of 89 Indian cities confirmed that higher UHI intensity = higher vulnerability to heatwaves.
Beyond Trees: Compounding Climate Risks in J&K
The combination of extreme heat and deforestation isn’t happening in isolation. J&K has also experienced:
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Over 80% rainfall deficit in August 2024—shrinking river levels, especially in the Jhelum.
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Glacial retreat, affecting long-term water security.
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Increased cases of heat-related illness, anxiety, and respiratory issues, especially among outdoor workers and vulnerable populations.
These converging climate shocks amplify each other, turning Kashmir’s ecological shifts into public health and economic crises.
What Can Be Done? Policy, Planning & Public Response
Immediate Measures
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Reintroduce green buffer zones around infrastructure projects.
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Enforce compensatory afforestation in proportion to tree felling—ideally within the same ecological zone.
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Expand urban forestry initiatives, including roadside plantations, shaded walkways, and green roofs.
Planning Tools
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Mandate Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) that consider UHI and microclimate shifts before approving urban projects.
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Develop city heat maps and use satellite temperature tracking to identify UHI hotspots.
Public Engagement
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Launch school and community campaigns on urban greening, water conservation, and plastic-free zones.
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Incentivize private landowners to protect orchards, wetlands, and green cover.
Bottom-Line: The Need for a Green Urban Vision
What we’re witnessing in Jammu & Kashmir is not an isolated phenomenon—it is part of a global environmental collapse being accelerated by local negligence. If the present trajectory continues, both Srinagar and Jammu risk becoming unlivable during peak summers within the next two decades.
Reclaiming green space is no longer optional—it’s a matter of climate justice and public survival. If abnormal is the new normal, as the data suggests, then adaptive governance, climate-smart infrastructure, and ecological restoration must become the new pillars of Kashmir’s development strategy.
Otherwise, the valley might cool only in memory.
