The Fragile Truce: Inside Trump’s High-Stakes Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Iran

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Brokered by Trump Ends 12-Day War: Nuclear Threat Removed, But Tensions Remain

By: Javid Amin | 24 June 2025

A Temporary Peace in a Volatile Region

After nearly two weeks of violent confrontation, Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, halting a highly volatile military standoff that pushed the Middle East to the brink of full-scale war. The deal, brokered in dramatic fashion by former U.S. President Donald Trump, marks a significant—if tentative—de-escalation in a region already plagued by unrest. Yet, with deep mistrust on both sides, questions remain: Is this a path to lasting peace, or just a pause before the next round of hostilities?

How the Conflict Began: A Dangerous Spiral

The 12-day war began with heightened Israeli airstrikes on suspected Iranian nuclear and missile facilities in western Iran and Syria. This marked a major escalation following months of covert operations, cyber sabotage, and proxy skirmishes between the two countries.

Iran, caught off guard but not unprepared, responded with aggressive force. Within days, it launched a barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles targeting Israeli cities like Beersheba and Haifa, as well as military sites in the Negev. Although Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted many, casualties and significant infrastructural damage occurred.

The region was instantly on edge. Brent crude oil surged to $98 per barrel, and global markets showed signs of panic. Civilian populations braced for a larger war.

Trump’s Role: The Diplomatic Wildcard Returns

Despite no longer holding office, Donald Trump played a surprising and central role in bringing the conflict to a halt. With support from his former team—including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff—Trump worked behind the scenes to open backchannels with Tehran via Qatar and Oman.

Trump’s most quoted line from this effort was reportedly: “Get me Bibi. We’re going to make peace,” referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

After days of complex diplomacy, Trump convinced Netanyahu that continuing military operations risked a broader war with economic and political costs for Israel. Iranian officials, though initially resistant, began softening their stance after U.S. assurances were relayed through regional mediators.

Iran’s Mixed Messaging: Denial, Then Confirmation

Iran’s initial response to reports of a ceasefire was a flat denial. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, “There is no agreement on any ceasefire. However, if Israel stops its aggression, we have no intention to continue our response.”

Hours later, as Israeli air raids paused and Qatari officials confirmed Iran’s military de-escalation orders, Tehran issued a more conciliatory statement. The 7:30 a.m. Tehran-time ceasefire was described as a “mutual understanding based on de-escalation.”

The shift in tone reflected Iran’s delicate balancing act: showing strength to its domestic base while avoiding further military entanglement.

Israel’s Position: Victory Claimed, But at What Cost?

Israel declared it had met its strategic objectives:

• Destruction of Iranian ballistic missile production hubs in Syria and Isfahan
• Targeted elimination of top Iranian military leaders
• Temporary disablement of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan

Israel presented these outcomes as a comprehensive victory, claiming to have “removed the nuclear threat for now.”

Yet, analysts warn that Iran’s uranium enrichment and missile programs are likely to be rebuilt. Furthermore, Israel’s actions drew condemnation from several quarters, including the UN, European Union, and human rights groups, who questioned the legality of unilateral airstrikes.

Timeline of the 12-Day Conflict

Days 1–3: Israeli Strikes Begin

• Precision bombings on Iranian facilities in Syria and western Iran
• Iran mobilizes air defense systems, vows strategic patience

Days 4–5: Iranian Retaliation

• 100+ missiles fired into Israeli territory
• Casualties reported in Beersheba and Haifa

Day 6: U.S. Joins In

• U.S. strikes key Iranian nuclear sites
• Trump calls it a “strategic success”

Days 7–9: Global Alarm

• UN and EU call for ceasefire
• Oil markets spike as Strait of Hormuz threats rise

Day 10: Iranian Counterstrike

• U.S. bases in Iraq targeted
• 12 American personnel injured; Tehran experiences internet blackout

Day 11: Diplomacy Behind Closed Doors

• Trump, through Qatar and Oman, negotiates with Iran
• Netanyahu persuaded to cease airstrikes

Day 12: Ceasefire Begins

• Ceasefire initiated at 7:30 a.m. Tehran time
• Both nations halt offensive operations

Regional Reactions and Diplomatic Fallout

Gulf Nations: Balancing Act

Qatar and Oman emerged as the unsung heroes of the crisis, mediating the ceasefire with subtlety and speed. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, though wary of Iran, called for calm without direct involvement.

United Nations: Legal and Humanitarian Inquiry

The UN has announced an inquiry into the legality of the U.S. and Israeli strikes, especially given the absence of a formal declaration of war. Human rights organizations have also raised concerns about civilian casualties in both countries.

U.S.-Iran Relations: Fragile Ground

Despite the ceasefire, relations between Washington and Tehran remain fraught. Iran insists it will continue uranium enrichment in defiance of Western pressure, while the U.S. maintains economic sanctions.

Impact on India and the Global Economy

Energy Security at Risk

The conflict severely impacted India’s oil import routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. India, which imports nearly 80% of its oil, had to activate emergency energy reserves.

Indian Diplomacy

India’s Ministry of External Affairs urged restraint and emphasized the importance of regional stability. Backchannel communications were reportedly established with both Israel and Iran to ensure the safety of 8 million Indian citizens living and working across the Gulf.

What Happens Next? Truce or Ticking Time Bomb?

Despite the ceasefire, leaders on both sides have made it clear that they are not standing down completely.

Israel

• Continues aerial surveillance
• Keeps missile defense on high alert
• Refuses to rule out future preemptive strikes

Iran

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran “will never surrender.”
• Vows to rebuild missile capabilities and accelerate nuclear R&D

Peace, it seems, has arrived — but is fragile, conditional, and overshadowed by deep mistrust.

Ceasefire Terms: The Devil in the Details

1. Israel’s “Mission Accomplished” Claims

   • Neutralized nuclear/ballistic capabilities (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan “functionally destroyed”)

   • Decimated IRGC leadership (Quds Force commanders killed in Damascus strike)

   • Unspoken Concession: No regime change push; tacit acceptance of Iran’s regional presence

2. Iran’s Conditional Surrender

   • Initial denial: “No agreement exists” (Foreign Ministry)

   • Strategic U-turn: “We’ll halt operations if Israel stops aggression” (Araghchi)

   • Red Line Preserved: Continued uranium enrichment at remaining facilities

3. The Final Hour Bloodshed

   • 7:30 a.m. Tehran ceasefire preceded by Iranian missile barrage on Beersheba

   • 4 killed, 12 wounded – a “parting shot” to save face domestically

Trump’s “Get Me Bibi” Diplomacy: The Backchannel Playbook

The Mediation Machinery:

Critical Exchanges:

• Trump to Netanyahu: “Take the deal or lose US bunker-busters next time.”

• Iran’s Demand: Written US guarantee against regime change strikes

• Qatar’s Pivot: Doha transmitted terms via IRGC General Bagheri (bypassing Foreign Ministry)

Regional Fallout: Winners, Losers & Ticking Bombs

Power Shifts

Human & Economic Toll

• Casualties: 187 Israeli, 291 Iranian, 46 Lebanese civilians

• Oil Markets: Brent crude at $98 → $84 post-ceasefire (Hormuz remains open)

• India’s Relief: Fuel prices drop 7%; Gulf repatriation flights resume

India’s Strategic Tightrope

• Energy Security: 60-day oil reserve buffer activated

• Diplomatic Dance:

  • Supported UN ceasefire resolution

  • Quietly approved US use of Diego Garcia base

• Economic Exposure:

  • $26B export market at risk (Gulf construction projects frozen)

“This isn’t peace – it’s a timeout for rearmament.”
– Former RAW Chief A.S. Dulat

The Art of the Deal… or the Calm Before Storm?

Trump’s ceasefire reveals brutal truths:

1. Military Diplomacy Wins: Force compelled talks (82% of ceasefires fail without it)

2. Iran Blinked First: Tehran couldn’t risk open war with US

3. Netanyahu’s Pyrrhic Victory: Saved his coalition but exposed strategic dependence

What’s Next?

• ⏱️ 3-6 month lull as Iran rebuilds

• 🔥 Proxy flare-ups (Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon) by August

• 💣 Israeli preemptive strike risk if uranium enrichment resumes

The Middle East’s bloodiest ceasefire in decades has bought time – but the clock is ticking.

Bottom-Line: A Ceasefire Brokered by Unconventional Means

The Israel-Iran ceasefire, brokered unexpectedly by Donald Trump and his former administration, may go down as one of the most unconventional peace efforts in modern history. For now, guns have fallen silent. Yet the region remains a powder keg where one misstep could ignite another round of violence.

Whether this truce becomes a turning point or just a tactical pause depends on what both sides choose to do next. The world watches, waits, and hopes for peace—however fragile.