Frozen Warnings: Why Greenland’s Glacier Slowdown Isn’t Good News
By: Javid Amin | Srinagar | 08 July 2025
A Cold Misunderstanding
When news emerged that Jakobshavn Isbrae—Greenland’s most notorious glacier for melting at record speeds—had started to slow down and even thicken, some media headlines called it “good news” for the climate. But scientists have swiftly corrected this narrative. The glacier’s temporary stability is not a reversal of climate change but a symptom of short-term oceanic variability masking a long-term disaster.
As Josh Willis, lead scientist on NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, put it:
“Everything we’ve found suggests Greenland’s glaciers are more threatened than we expected.”
What’s Really Happening at Jakobshavn?
Jakobshavn Isbrae drains about 7% of Greenland’s massive ice sheet and was previously known as the fastest-thinning glacier on Earth. Since the early 2000s, it had been retreating dramatically, dumping billions of tons of ice into the ocean annually.
However, since 2016, the glacier has:
- Slowed down
- Thickened slightly
- Advanced its grounding line
This shift corresponds not to human intervention or climate improvement, but to a temporary cooling of the surrounding ocean. Scientists have identified a reversal in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural climate pattern that affects ocean currents and temperatures. In this case, the NAO has pushed cooler waters into the fjord where Jakobshavn ends, momentarily stabilizing the glacier.
Important context: Once the NAO flips again (as it inevitably will), warmer waters will return, and Jakobshavn is expected to resume its rapid retreat.
The Bigger Threat Beneath the Surface
Even as Jakobshavn slows, Greenland’s ice sheet continues to lose ice at alarming rates. According to data from NASA and the European Space Agency:
- Greenland has lost an average of 269 gigatons of ice per year since 2002.
- In 2012 and 2019 alone, over 400 gigatons of ice melted annually.
- Sea levels are rising about 3.3 millimeters per year globally, with Greenland contributing nearly 1 mm of that rise.
A Global Warning Sign
The danger lies not just in Jakobshavn’s slowdown, but in how such events can mislead the public and policymakers. Temporary changes in one glacier might seem like a win, but mask the acceleration of climate change elsewhere:
- Glaciers in southeastern Greenland continue to retreat rapidly
- Ice loss is spreading to previously stable interior parts of the ice sheet
- Ocean temperatures in the Arctic are hitting new highs
This is not a trend reversal. It’s a deceptive pause in a long, destructive pattern.
Understanding Natural Variability vs. Climate Change
Climate systems are complex and influenced by both long-term trends and short-term variability. Events like the NAO, El Niño, or volcanic eruptions can cool or warm regions temporarily, making it crucial to separate signal from noise.
“One cool decade doesn’t undo a century of warming.” — Dr. Ruth Mottram, Danish Meteorological Institute
In Jakobshavn’s case, the NAO’s recent cooling phase gave the appearance of glacial recovery. But scientists tracking ocean heat content, glacier velocity, and ice surface height warn this is temporary.
Glacial Dynamics: What Keeps Jakobshavn Alive (or Dying)
Jakobshavn is a marine-terminating glacier, meaning it ends in the ocean. Such glaciers are especially sensitive to:
- Ocean temperature
- Subglacial topography (bedrock below the glacier)
- Ice shelf collapse
When warm Atlantic water enters the fjords, it melts the glacier from underneath. This makes marine-terminating glaciers like Jakobshavn among the fastest contributors to sea-level rise.
Even with a momentary thickening, the underlying dynamics remain broken. The glacier is still vulnerable to the return of warm currents and increasingly unpredictable climate behavior.
Ripple Effects: Why the World Should Care
Greenland holds enough ice to raise sea levels by over 7 meters (23 feet) if it melted completely. While that’s unlikely in the short term, current models predict that if warming continues unchecked:
- 1 meter sea level rise is possible by 2100
- Major coastal cities like Mumbai, New York, and Dhaka could face annual flooding
- Ecosystems will be destroyed, and tens of millions of people displaced
Jakobshavn’s brief pause is not a time to celebrate, but to act.
Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Glacier | Jakobshavn Isbrae |
| Ice Loss Rate (2002–2024) | 269 gigatons/year |
| Peak Ice Loss (2012/2019) | 400+ gigatons/year |
| Sea Level Contribution | ~1 mm/year |
| Total Greenland Potential | 7 meters (23 ft) global SLR |
What the Scientists Are Saying
“The temporary thickening doesn’t change the long-term picture. It’s like watching a heart monitor that pauses for a beat—you still need surgery.” — Dr. Eric Rignot, Glaciologist, UC Irvine
“Jakobshavn is the canary in the coal mine. If it’s quiet now, the storm is still coming.” — Dr. Twila Moon, National Snow and Ice Data Center
“Short-term cooling doesn’t equal recovery. It equals distraction.” — Josh Willis, NASA OMG Project
Policy Implications: No Time to Delay
This glacier’s pause is a prime example of why climate policy must be based on long-term trends, not short-term optics. Key steps include:
- Rapid decarbonization of energy systems
- Investment in Arctic and oceanic research
- Stronger global commitments under the Paris Agreement
- Coastal resilience planning in vulnerable countries
The Danger of Misinterpretation
Media and politicians celebrating the Jakobshavn slowdown risk undermining urgent climate action. Misreporting or oversimplifying complex climate signals can:
- Delay mitigation policies
- Confuse the public
- Fuel climate denial narratives
“The media must distinguish between weather and climate. What looks like a win today could cost us the planet tomorrow.” — Emily Atkin, Climate Journalist
Bottom-Line: Pause Doesn’t Mean Progress
The Jakobshavn slowdown is a moment to sharpen focus, not loosen resolve. Greenland’s ice sheet remains on a downward spiral, and the slight reprieve in one glacier could soon give way to a surge in ice loss.
This is the nature of climate science—dynamic, complex, but unambiguously urgent. We must act not on what feels like good news, but on what the long-term evidence shows: that Earth’s cryosphere is under siege, and time is melting away.
