Budgam By-Election 2025 | Fault Lines Deepen in National Conference Ahead of Nov 11 Contest

Ahead of the Budgam by-election on 11 November 2025, internal divisions within the National Conference (NC) have deepened, revealing a rift between senior leaders and raising questions about party cohesion.

By: Javid Amin | 30 October 2025

As the by-election for the Budgam assembly segment in Jammu & Kashmir approaches on November 11, 2025, the ruling Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) finds itself navigating a far more difficult terrain than originally anticipated. What should have been a straightforward contest to retain a seat has transformed into an arena showcasing deep fissures within the party — between generations, power centres and intra-community dynamics.

This article offers a detailed, ground-verified account of the evolving dynamics: the selection of candidate controversy between Farooq Abdullah and his son, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah; the protest refusal of MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi; the rare three-way intra-community contest among Shia leaders; and what the by-poll means for the NC’s cohesion, identity politics and broader electoral strategy. Each section unpacks the issues, draws on contemporary ground-reporting and points to wider implications for the region’s political trajectory.

The Stakes: Why Budgam Matters

01. The Context of the Seat

The Budgam assembly constituency — nestled in the central Kashmir valley — is not simply another electoral segment. It is part of the larger heritage of the NC, and carries demographic, symbolic and political weight. According to its profile, Budgam has been represented repeatedly by members of the influential Aga family, and in 2024 was won by Omar Abdullah.

The seat fell vacant following Omar Abdullah’s decision to retain the Ganderbal seat he had also contested in the 2024 Assembly election, triggering this by-poll. This creates a litmus test scenario: can the party retain control of what was a stronghold, against the backdrop of internal turbulence?

02. The Timing and Its Significance

Scheduled for November 11, 2025, the by-poll comes at a time when the NC government led by Omar Abdullah has completed roughly one year in office. As several media reports note, the opposition is framing the election as a referendum on that first year’s performance.

In this sense, the by-poll is far more than a local contest: for the NC it is about demonstrating unity, discipline and electoral strength. For its critics and opponents, it is about exposing weakness, divisions and vote-erosion. The outcome will be closely watched as a barometer of how the party fares in 2026 and beyond.

03. Identity, Representation and the Shia Factor

Particularly noteworthy in Budgam is the strong presence of the Shia community and the fact that the three main parties (NC, the Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)) have fielded candidates from the influential Aga Syed family. The contest thus has a layered dimension: intra-community rivalry, clan dynamics, and the broader question of whether identity still trumps ideology in this micro-region.

Given these stakes, the internal cohesion and candidate selection of the NC matter, and the signs of internal rift are especially worrisome for the party’s election management.

Internal Rift: Farooq vs Omar – The Candidate Selection Drama

01. The Decision: Who Picks the Candidate?

At the heart of the NC’s trouble is the candidate selection for Budgam. Reports reveal that party president Farooq Abdullah insisted on fielding Aga Syed Mehmood — a senior Shia leader and former minister — citing the demographic logic of the Shia population in Budgam. His son, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, is said to have preferred a different nominee, but his position was overruled, according to insiders.

This signals a clear generational or authority dynamic: the father (Farooq) exercising his influence over his son (Omar) in deciding candidate matters. That kind of internal override can send ripples of discontent in a party that emphasizes collective leadership and internal consultation.

02. Omar’s Role and Reaction

Omar Abdullah, as Chief Minister and senior party face, finds himself in a delicate position. On one hand he leads the government; on the other hand, he is being sidelined (or feels sidelined) in a key decision for his own constituency region. This appears to have compounded frustration among local cadres who expect the sitting CM to assert his preference.

In a sharp comment, Omar reportedly told journalists: “Do not compare” when asked about the role of MP Aga Syed Ruhullah. His remark was widely interpreted as a public distancing — signalling that he felt challenged, even undermined, by internal dissent.

03. Implications of the Overruling

The overruling of Omar’s preferred candidate has several implications:

Authority structure: It shows Farooq still holds supreme say in the party’s internal matter, which may leave other senior leaders feeling bypassed.
Cadre morale: When local cadres see weak internal debate or sidelined voices, it can lower enthusiasm for campaigning.
Public perception: Voters may perceive the candidate selection as less of a democratic grassroots choice and more of a top-down imposition, hurting credibility.
Faction building: Those whose suggestions were overridden (or whose ambitions were curbed) may feel aggrieved and either disengage or quietly play spoiler.

Given all this, the NC’s campaign machinery in Budgam is facing under-currents of unease even before the votes are cast.

The Defiance: Aga Syed Ruhullah’s Non-Campaign – A Symbol of Disquiet

01. Who is Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi?

Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi is the NC’s Member of Parliament from Srinagar and one of the most prominent Shia voices within the party. He has represented Budgam in past and carries considerable local influence. He is deeply rooted in the Shia – and particularly the Aga Syed – clan networks in central Kashmir.

Given his background and constituency linkage, his discontent is not just internal but resonates with voters.

02. His Refusal to Campaign: What Happened?

In a striking development, Ruhullah publicly refused to campaign for the party’s candidate in Budgam. He cited “loyalty to conscience and principles” as his reason — signalling that his relationship with the leadership (and possibly the candidate) is severely strained.

Further, his team issued a notice asking political parties and campaigners not to use his images for election purposes. This is unusual for a sitting MP from the ruling party, suggesting an almost open separation.

03. What Fuelled the Fallout?

The reasons for this stand-off include:

Governance frustrations: In a pointed speech, Ruhullah criticised Omar’s government for failing to deliver on key promises — especially around the restoration of the region’s former special status and other election commitments.
Local ambitions: Some reports suggest that Ruhullah sees Budgam as his his father’s (and his) political bastion — and objections are playing out over who holds sway in the region.
Symbolic of deepening rifts: Observers say the stand-off is about more than Budgam — it signals a struggle for influence between Shia leadership, generational leadership, and regional leaders within the NC.

04. Consequences for the Campaign

The absence of a heavyweight local figure like Ruhullah from the campaign trail is a red flag for the NC. It can undermine:

Ground mobilisation: In a constituency where personal networks matter, such non-participation can negatively impact door-to-door outreach and voter motivation.
Party unity messaging: Voters often look for a cohesive front; internal public dissent can erode trust and provide ammunition to rivals.
Symbolic representation: For many Shia voters in Budgam, the non-involvement of a key Shia leader may send a message that the party is not aligned with community priorities.

In short, Ruhullah’s defiance acts as both a symptom and a signal of deeper structural problems for the NC.

The ‘Aga’ Triangle: Three Shia Heavyweights in a Rare Intra-Community Contest

01. The Candidates – Who’s Who

NC’s Candidate: Aga Syed Mehmood (senior Shia leader, former minister) – picked by Farooq Abdullah.
PDP’s Candidate: Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi – another Shia leader from the region, from the opposition party.
BJP’s Candidate: Aga Syed Mohsin – a third Shia contender fielded by the BJP, marking a shift in their strategy to court Shia voters in Budgam.

This trinity sets up a highly unusual scenario: three candidates from the same community (and indeed the same clan network) vying for a single seat — making representation, identity and clan networks central to the contest.

02. Why This Matters for Budgam

Typically, community-based seats can lend themselves to consolidation behind one figure. But here the Shia vote may fragment:

The NC expects core loyalty from its Shia supporters, but internal divisions may shake that.
The PDP and BJP believe they have a possibility of cutting into the NC’s base if they target the Shia electorate well.
For voters, the choice is not only ideological but also personal: which leader from the Aga family will they back? Which party aligns with their current concerns (governance, jobs, identity)?

03. Strategic Implications for the Parties

For the NC: Winning this seat would reaffirm their dominance in their home turf, and show that despite internal rifts, they can still mobilise the Shia vote. A loss or narrow win would raise serious questions.
For the PDP: Their candidate’s presence gives them a tool to exploit NC’s weaknesses; even if they don’t win, a strong showing could shift dynamics in the region.
For the BJP: Typically weaker in central Kashmir’s Shia-majority belt, the BJP’s decision to field a Shia candidate signals a longer-term ambition to make inroads.

04. Voter Context – What Might They Be Thinking?

From door‐to‐door ground reports (as referenced in media coverage):

Many Shia voters in Budgam feel the NC has taken their loyalty for granted.
Some emphasise governance over identity now — jobs, infrastructure, effective representation matter more than just clan linkages.
The fragmentation of the Shia vote may lead to lower margins and surprises; some may abstain rather than vote for a candidate they feel is imposed.

Hence, the ‘Aga triangle’ provides more than a catchy electoral line – it is part of a deeper transformation in how representation is being contested in Kashmir’s central belt.

Strategic Implications: What’s at Stake for the NC and Beyond

01. For Party Cohesion and Discipline

The internal rift between Farooq and Omar, and Ruhullah’s non-participation, highlight a weakening of internal discipline within the NC. As one Srinagar-based observer quoted in media said:

“The outcome of these elections is also going to decide the relationship between Ruhullah and Omar and the party.”

Discipline is critical for the NC because:

It influences campaign effectiveness: message control, candidate coordination, and ground mobilisation all benefit from unity.
It sets precedent: if dissent goes unpunished (or unaddressed), future internal challenges will grow.
It affects alliance management: the NC’s working relationship with its coalition partners (notably the Indian National Congress) depends on it being seen as a stable anchor. In fact, the Congress has expressed dissatisfaction with NC’s governance performance.

If the Budgam by-election yields a poor result, the NC risks being judged less by its electoral outcome and more by its internal state of health.

02. For the NC’s Government and Credibility

Beyond internal party matters, the by‐poll is a performance test for Omar Abdullah’s government. Areas of concern include:

Fulfilment of promises: Several NC MPs including Ruhullah have publicly criticised the government for not delivering on key election commitments (such as revival of special status, ending smart-meter policies, job recruitment).
Public mood: Central Kashmir voters are increasingly cautious; they have expressed disillusionment in some quarters about political performance over identity rhetoric.
Electoral spill-overs: A weakened performance in Budgam could embolden opposition parties or regional players ahead of future contests, shifting power dynamics in Kashmir.

03. For the Shifting Political Landscape of J&K

The by-poll also matters in a broader sense for Jammu & Kashmir:

The presence of all major parties (NC, PDP, BJP) with strong candidates highlights an evolving multiparty contest, moving away from habitual dominance by one or two parties.
The intra-community competition suggests that identity politics — especially Shia representation — is becoming more contested and less taken for granted.
The outcome may signal which party is better positioned to represent the Shia vote in the valley: will they remain with the NC, or will alternatives gain traction?

04. For the Opposition’s Narrative

Opposition parties have framed the by-poll as an opportunity to challenge NC’s claim to dominance:

The PDP candidate has indicated that they will try to benefit from NC’s internal discord, even though publicly the candidate says he will not “interfere” in NC’s internal fight.
The BJP’s selection of a Shia candidate signals a strategic push to break the NC’s hold in central Kashmir.
The Congress, separately, by withdrawing from certain by-poll contests, signals that alliances are fluid, and the NC cannot assume unqualified support.

Hence, the Budgam by-election is both symbol and substance: a chance for the NC to reaffirm strength, and for its opponents to expose cracks.

On the Ground: Voter Sentiments, Local Dynamics & Campaign Realities

01. Voter Sentiments in Budgam

Ground-reporting and media commentary suggest the following currents among Budgam voters:

Frustration with delivery: Some constituents feel that pre-election promises of jobs, infrastructure, restoration of rights have not been met, and they are willing to send a message.
Identity vs performance: While Shia identity remains strong, voters are increasingly asking: Which candidate will deliver? Merely being from the Aga family or being Shia is not sufficient.
Personal linkages matter: In Jammu & Kashmir’s political culture, local leaders’ personal connectivity, ability to address local concerns (road repair, water supply, electricity) matter more than overarching narratives.
Dissent fatigue: Some voters are fatigued by infighting; they don’t want their vote to become a pawn in internal party struggles. Some are quietly asking: Why should I vote when the party itself is divided?

02. Campaign Realities & Mobilisation Challenges

For the NC and its candidate:

The non-participation of Ruhullah means one less local heavyweight to mobilise ground resources and networks.
The top-down candidate selection (if perceived as such) may reduce local volunteers’ enthusiasm.
The party must now work harder to project a unified message, even if internal differences persist.

For opposition parties:

The PDP and BJP will attempt to exploit the NC’s cracks by pitching themselves as alternatives. But their challenge is building credible local machinery in a very short time.
They must also address the Shia electorate’s concerns convincingly — not just ride on the NC’s missteps, but offer a believable local representative.

03. Local Dynamics: The Role of Clan, Religion and Region

In Budgam, several overlapping identities matter:

The “Aga” identity: The candidates all share the “Aga Syed” appellation, which draws upon a particular lineage and local respect. This makes the election less about outsider vs insider, and more about insider vs insider.
Shia majority/sub-community: The Shia community forms a significant part of the electorate in Budgam. Effective outreach means addressing their specific socioeconomic concerns (e.g., representation in administration, religious trusts, local development).
Regional vs valley-wide concerns: While Budgam is in the valley heartland, voters are influenced by larger valley politics (e.g., autonomy issues, statehood, powers of local governance) along with very local questions (roads, power, youth jobs).
Youth aspirations: Young voters are less bound by clan loyalties and more by employment, connectivity, and future prospects. Parties must speak to them differently.

04. Risk of Vote Splitting & Surprise Results

The three-way intra-community contest introduces a real risk of vote-splitting:

The NC may retain its share but lose margin due to internal disengagement.
The PDP may gain enough to position itself as a credible challenger even if it doesn’t win.
The BJP’s Shia candidate may siphon off enough votes to upset NC’s command.
A lower turnout, or apathy among core sections, could distort typical patterns.

Given these scenarios, the by-poll becomes unpredictable and dynamic.

What It Means Going Forward: Possible Scenarios & Implications

01. Scenario One: NC Wins Cleanly

If the NC’s candidate, Aga Syed Mehmood, wins comfortably:

It will signal that the internal rifts have been managed and that the party retains engine-room strength in central Kashmir.
For Omar Abdullah and his government: it will offer a boost in legitimacy and may quell internal dissent for a time.
For the Shia electorate: it may reaffirm that loyalty to the party still pays, and deter future fragmentation.
It could strengthen NC’s bargaining power with coalition partners like the Congress and decrease external challenges.

02. Scenario Two: NC Wins Narrowly or Suffers Reduced Margin

If the NC wins but by a reduced margin, or the majority is slender:

It will raise questions about cadres’ enthusiasm, the effectiveness of local leadership, and the health of internal unity.
It might embolden internal challengers or dissenters within the party, prompting more factionalism.
The opposition (PDP, BJP) will claim they are gaining ground, altering future calculations and possibly changing alliance dynamics.
The government led by Omar may face increased scrutiny from both within and outside the party.

03. Scenario Three: NC Loses

If the NC loses the seat:

It will be a major blow to the party’s perception as the dominant political force in the valley.
The internal rifts may deepen: critics within the party may argue that the leadership mis-managed the campaign, candidate selection and ground mobilization.
The opposition will gain enormous momentum: the PDP could elevate itself as the claim-maker in central Kashmir, the BJP will see a path to expansion, and the Congress may rethink its alliance strategy.
For governance: Omar’s government will face questions about its electoral mandate, public support and future viability.
For the Shia community: The defeat may trigger re-thinking about representation, loyalty and political choice beyond the NC.

04. Broader Implications for Kashmir Politics

Party vs identity: The Budgam contest may mark a shift away from automatic loyalty to one party (NC) among the Shia community and open space for competitive politics.
Intra-party democracy: How the NC resolves (or fails to resolve) the rifts will set precedents for internal leadership transitions, candidate selections and generational change.
Youth and performance politics: If the election hinges more on delivery (jobs, infrastructure) than on lineage alone, the nature of politics in Kashmir may gradually move towards performance rather than identity alone.
Coalition mathematics: The NC’s relations with the Congress and other allies will be tested. As the Congress has already hinted at concern over NC’s performance, a weak showing may result in renegotiations.
Opposition ascendancy: A strong performance from the opposition parties in Budgam could change the power equation in Jammu & Kashmir, making future contests more competitive and less predictable.

A Note on Governance, Accountability & Public Expectation

While much of the attention remains on personalities, power plays and clan dynamics, it’s important to remember the underlying dimension of governance and public expectation.

01. The Disappointment Quotient

Multiple media reports indicate frustration among NC MPs and local leaders about the government’s pace of action. For example, one article noted:

“The rift, centered on issues of governance, unfulfilled pledges, and the contentious restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, has exposed deep divisions …”

This is not just internal squabbling — it reflects a broader sentiment of unmet expectation among sections of the electorate.

02. Performance vs Promise

Promises such as the restoration of the region’s special status, removal of policies such as smart meters, youth employment drives, and development projects were part of the NC’s narrative. Some critics argue that the party has back-pedalled or delayed.

For the by-poll in Budgam, this means the campaign must go beyond identity and highlight credible delivery plans and proofs of action. Otherwise the vote may become a sanction ballot.

03. The Electoral Dividend of Local Work

In regions like Budgam, what often matters on the ground are very local issues: road links, power outages, water supply, local employment and administrative responsiveness. While party narratives matter, votes are increasingly influenced by tangible performance.

The NC, therefore, must balance its high-level narratives (identity, special status) with micro-level delivery stories. The opposition will exploit any gap.

Bottom-Line: The Budgam By-Election as a Microcosm

The upcoming by-election in Budgam is more than a local contest. It is a microcosm of the broader transitions and fault-lines within the NC, the evolving identity politics of Kashmir, and the changing expectations of the electorate.

From the public clash between Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah over candidate selection, to the defiance of Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, to the three-way contest among Shia heavyweights — each element signals that the NC cannot afford to rest on its legacy alone.

The results of November 11 will reverberate beyond Budgam. They will speak to the NC’s internal discipline, its performance credibility, its ability to mobilise at the ground, and the evolving preferences of voters in central Kashmir. A comfortable win will buy it time; a weak win or a loss will force reckoning, restructuring and perhaps a redefinition of how the party engages with its base.

For observers of Kashmir politics, this by-poll is a must-watch. It may well herald the next phase of contestation in the region — where identity, performance and internal party dynamics collide.