A Political Season of High Stakes
By: Javid Amin | 02 October 2025
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced biennial Rajya Sabha (RS) elections for four seats from Jammu & Kashmir, scheduled for October 24. While these polls involve only MLAs casting votes, their significance extends well beyond the Assembly. The outcome will directly impact the region’s voice in the Upper House of Parliament, and indirectly, it will test the durability of alliances and the balance of political power in J&K.
Simultaneously, Assembly by-polls are expected in constituencies left vacant by resignations, deaths, and disqualifications. For many regional outfits—particularly the PDP, Apni Party, and People’s Conference—these by-polls will serve as a litmus test of grassroots relevance in a post-Article 370 political order.
Together, the RS elections and Assembly by-polls mark a critical juncture. They will reveal how far national and regional parties can consolidate influence, how enduring current coalitions are, and how voters on the ground are responding to the evolving governance and identity politics of Jammu & Kashmir.
The Rajya Sabha Polls: What’s at Stake
Four Seats, Many Equations
J&K has four seats in the Rajya Sabha, the Upper House of Parliament. These elections matter because:
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They decide who represents J&K at the national level, shaping debates on statehood, special status, and governance.
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Since only MLAs vote, the outcome reflects Assembly strength, coalition durability, and alliance math, not direct public mood.
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Given the current INC–NC coalition government, the contest is expected to be tight, with every MLA’s vote holding critical value.
The Voting System
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Voting is done by MLAs through a proportional representation system using the single transferable vote method.
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This means alliances and tactical transfers of votes matter more than just numbers.
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Even small blocs and independents can tip the balance.
Alliance Math in the Rajya Sabha Contest
NC–INC Bloc: Consolidated but Fractured?
The National Conference (NC)–Indian National Congress (INC) coalition currently governs J&K. Logically, they are positioned to field joint candidates and sweep most RS seats.
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Strengths: Together, they command a numerical edge over the BJP in the Assembly.
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Challenges: Disagreements may arise over candidate selection and seat-sharing formulas. NC, being stronger locally, may push for more candidates, while Congress will insist on fair representation.
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Message to Voters: A successful joint campaign would showcase coalition unity at a time when statehood restoration and LG power rollback are burning issues.
BJP: Playing the Long Game
The BJP, though in opposition, remains a formidable player. Its strength lies in:
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Independent MLAs: The BJP has cultivated relationships with independents and smaller outfits like the J&K Apni Party and Democratic Azad Party (DAP).
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National Leverage: With the BJP ruling at the Centre, it can use influence and patronage networks to woo fence-sitters.
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Strategic Symbolism: Even if it doesn’t win many seats, securing even one RS seat from J&K would send a strong symbolic message of BJP’s continuing foothold in the region.
PDP: Symbolism Over Numbers
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, lacks numerical strength in the Assembly. However, its decision to contest—if it fields candidates—will be symbolically significant.
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Ideological Assertion: By contesting, PDP signals it has not ceded space to either NC or Congress.
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Youth & Civil Rights Narrative: It can use the campaign to amplify its criticism of militarised governance and connect with disillusioned voters.
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Risk Factor: With low MLA strength, PDP risks being marginalised further if it performs poorly.
Other Players: Apni Party & DAP
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J&K Apni Party (led by Altaf Bukhari): Known for pragmatic politics and its closeness to the Centre, it could swing support toward BJP-backed candidates.
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Democratic Azad Party (led by Ghulam Nabi Azad): A wildcard force. Though weakened since its launch, Azad still commands personal loyalty among some legislators.
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Both outfits are seen as potential kingmakers in the alliance arithmetic.
Assembly By-polls: The Grassroots Test
While RS polls are about legislative numbers, the Assembly by-polls will be a direct measure of popular mood in J&K.
Where By-polls Are Expected
Vacancies exist due to resignations, deaths, and disqualifications. Constituencies in focus include:
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Anantnag (South Kashmir): PDP’s old bastion, now a three-way fight.
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Baramulla (North Kashmir): A stronghold for NC but with a rising People’s Conference.
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Rajouri & Poonch (Pir Panjal): Congress and NC face challenges from BJP’s outreach among Gujjars and Paharis.
Stakes for Each Party
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NC: Needs to defend traditional strongholds to prove coalition stability.
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INC: Will aim to expand its base in Pir Panjal and Jammu region to avoid being overshadowed by NC.
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BJP: Will try to showcase grassroots strength in Jammu and border areas while making inroads into Muslim-majority belts.
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PDP: Must win at least one seat in South Kashmir to remain relevant.
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Apni Party & People’s Conference: Both need victories to justify their existence as independent forces, not just appendages to BJP.
The Political Climate: Issues That Will Shape the Vote
Statehood & LG Powers
The demand for restoration of statehood and reduction of the Lieutenant Governor’s sweeping powers is a unifying theme across parties. How candidates align on this issue will affect voter sentiment.
Post-370 Sentiments
Even six years after the abrogation of Article 370, people in Kashmir continue to debate its legacy. The by-polls will reflect whether anger has waned or hardened.
Development vs. Dignity
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BJP’s Pitch: Focus on infrastructure, investment, and jobs.
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Regional Parties’ Pitch: Emphasis on dignity, representation, and democratic rights.
Security Concerns
Polling in volatile districts like Anantnag and Rajouri may face security challenges, affecting turnout and credibility.
Analysts’ Commentary: Why These Polls Matter
Political observers suggest that these elections are not merely about seats. They are about three larger questions:
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Coalition Durability: Can NC and Congress hold together under electoral stress, or will cracks appear?
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BJP’s Reach: Is the BJP’s influence in J&K limited to Jammu, or can it expand into Valley politics through proxies and allies?
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Public Mood: Do by-poll outcomes indicate a desire for normalcy and development or a continuing alienation from the post-370 political system?
Possible Scenarios
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Scenario 1: NC–INC sweeps RS polls, and holds strong in by-polls → Coalition emerges more confident, BJP isolated.
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Scenario 2: BJP-backed candidates snatch an RS seat, and Apni/DAP perform well in by-polls → Fragmented mandate, BJP claims symbolic victory.
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Scenario 3: PDP revives with surprise wins in South Kashmir → Mufti regains political voice, reshaping Valley politics.
Bottom-Line: The Road Ahead
The October 2025 Rajya Sabha polls and upcoming Assembly by-polls are more than just electoral rituals. They are a battlefield of alliances, ideologies, and identities in a region still grappling with the aftershocks of constitutional and political upheavals.
For the ruling NC–INC coalition, the test is unity and delivery. For the BJP, it is expansion and symbolism. For smaller players like PDP, Apni Party, and DAP, it is survival and relevance.
No matter the outcome, these elections will offer rare insight into both elite-level alliance politics and grassroots voter sentiment—a preview of how the political landscape of Jammu & Kashmir is set to evolve in the years ahead.
