No Airfare Surge Around Diwali? Govt’s Big Festive Season Directive to Airlines Goes Unheard — Airfares Continue to Soar, Kashmir Tourism Hit Hard

Festive Flights Under Watch — But Prices Still Climb

By: Javid Amin | 12 October 2025

Every Diwali, India’s aviation graph lights up with skyrocketing fares — a predictable trend that leaves passengers frustrated. This year, however, the Union Civil Aviation Ministry had promised a different story.
Civil Aviation Minister K. Rammohan Naidu issued a clear directive in early October, urging airlines to keep airfares reasonable during the festive rush. The ministry assured citizens that it would monitor airlines closely through the DGCA’s Tariff Monitoring Unit and the upgraded AirSewa portal, allowing passengers to report excessive pricing in real-time.

However, ground reality paints a different picture. Despite the official warning, airfares across popular routes — especially towards tourist-heavy regions like Kashmir — have continued to climb steeply, triggering widespread concern among travellers, tourism operators, and consumer rights groups.

Minister’s Meeting with Airlines — A Call for “Reasonable Fares”

In a high-level review meeting that lasted over five hours, Minister Naidu met representatives from Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air, Air India Express, Alliance Air, Fly91, FlyBig, and IndiaOne Air.
The agenda was comprehensive: operational safety, passenger service quality, and — most crucially — airfare regulation during Diwali and winter vacation months.

“Airlines have been directed to maintain reasonable fares across all routes and avoid any sudden spikes during the festive season,”
— Civil Aviation Minister K. Rammohan Naidu, October 2025

The DGCA and Civil Aviation Secretary Samir Kumar Sinha, along with DG Faiz Ahmed Kidwai, participated in the session, emphasizing fare transparency and consumer protection.

Despite these assurances, travel portals and fare aggregators show that ticket prices have risen by 25–40% in key sectors, including Delhi–Srinagar, Mumbai–Srinagar, and Bengaluru–Delhi.

Reality Check: Airfare Still on the Rise

The warning appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Over the past 10–15 days, flight fares to Kashmir and other leisure destinations have surged dramatically.

🔹 Fare Comparison (as of Oct 12, 2025)

Source: Travel data cross-verified from airline websites and leading OTAs.

These steep increases, coming right after the government’s directive, highlight the ineffectiveness of fare monitoring mechanisms and the urgent need for regulatory intervention.

Kashmir Tourism: The Silent Victim of High Airfares

While India’s aviation sector prepares for record-breaking Diwali traffic, Kashmir’s tourism industry is struggling to recover from multiple setbacks — from unseasonal rains and delayed infrastructure projects to the recent spike in airfare.

According to Kashmir Tourism Department data, visitor inflow dropped by nearly 22% in September 2025, compared to the same period last year.
Industry insiders cite high travel costs as a major deterrent for domestic tourists who would otherwise flock to the Valley during the autumn–winter season.

“Many travellers are postponing their trips because Delhi–Srinagar flights that cost ₹7,000 a few weeks ago are now touching ₹13,000. Even group bookings are down,”
— Sajjad Ahmad, local tour operator, JKL Travels (www.JKLTravels.com)

The Kashmir Travels team (www.KashmirTravels.in) also reports a noticeable dip in advance winter bookings, especially from Mumbai and Pune-based tourists.

Tourism Operators Sound the Alarm

For a region that depends heavily on tourism — contributing around 7–8% of J&K’s GDP — this airfare crisis couldn’t have come at a worse time.

“We had high hopes for Diwali and winter tourism this year, but the sudden airfare surge is discouraging families and honeymooners alike. Airlines must coordinate with the government to provide fair pricing,”
— Mr. Farooq, President, Travel Agents Association of Kashmir (TAAK)

Small travel agents are particularly hit, as last-minute fare fluctuations make fixed tour pricing impossible. Local guides, transporters, and hoteliers are also feeling the pinch.

Why Airfares Keep Rising — The Economics Behind It

Experts point to a combination of capacity constraints, fuel price escalation, and uneven seat allocation as reasons behind recurring fare surges.

1. Limited Seat Supply:
   Airlines tend to hold back inventory during festive seasons, releasing them later at higher prices.

2. Fuel Cost Surge:
   Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices have gone up nearly 14% since August 2025, directly impacting base fares.

3. Demand–Supply Mismatch:
   The number of operational aircraft has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels for some airlines, leading to bottlenecks.

4. Dynamic Pricing Algorithms:
   Automated systems often inflate prices during peak searches — even before real demand spikes.

Economist Dr. Ritu Kapoor from ICRIER notes:

“Without dynamic fare caps, the aviation market operates purely on profit logic. Government directives are important, but enforcement mechanisms must be stronger.”

DGCA’s Tariff Monitoring — A Step, Not a Solution

The DGCA Tariff Monitoring Unit, tasked with tracking airfare irregularities, primarily works on post-fact analysis. It reviews fare bands declared by airlines but cannot directly intervene in real-time fare hikes unless consumer complaints are lodged through AirSewa 3.0.

While the Ministry’s AirSewa upgrade now enables faster complaint resolution, passengers rarely use it due to lack of awareness or lengthy response cycles.

“We have updated the AirSewa portal to handle complaints related to high fares, cancellations, and delays. The goal is transparency and passenger confidence,”
— Official, Ministry of Civil Aviation

Yet, as current fares show, monitoring without enforcement is akin to policing without patrol.

Impact Beyond Tourism — The Ripple Effect on Economy

High airfares don’t just hurt travellers — they have a cascading impact on regional economies. In Kashmir’s case, the tourism slowdown translates into:

• Lower hotel occupancy rates

• Reduced bookings for taxis and local transport

• Decline in handicraft and dry fruit sales

• Fewer adventure and heritage tour sign-ups

According to Kashmir Chamber of Commerce & Industry (KCCI), the sector may lose ₹250–₹300 crore in potential festive season revenue if the current trend persists.

The Way Forward — What Can Be Done

The aviation ecosystem in India needs structural reform in fare management to ensure fair play during high-demand periods. Experts suggest:

1. Dynamic Fare Caps:
   Implement capped dynamic pricing, as seen in several global aviation markets.

2. Route-Based Subsidies:
   For priority destinations like Srinagar, Leh, Port Blair, seasonal fare relief should be mandated.

3. Increased Flight Frequency:
   Airlines can add temporary flights on high-demand routes during festivals to stabilize prices.

4. Public Disclosure:
   Airlines must publish transparent fare range charts in advance.

5. Active DGCA Intervention:
   Beyond post-fare monitoring, DGCA should adopt predictive analytics to detect price spikes before they hit consumers.

Hope Amid Challenges — Kashmir’s Resilience

Despite challenges, Kashmir’s tourism players remain optimistic.
The upcoming winter season (December–March) brings opportunities for ski tourism in Gulmarg, snow treks in Sonmarg, and cultural festivals in Srinagar. If airfare stabilizes, the Valley could still witness a rebound.

For travellers, the best approach remains early booking and comparative price tracking through reliable operators like:

• JKLTravels.com – offering custom Diwali and winter Kashmir packages

• KashmirTravels.in – specializing in family and honeymoon packages

Bottom-Line: Directive Without Discipline Doesn’t Fly

The Civil Aviation Ministry’s intent to protect passengers during Diwali is commendable — but intent alone won’t bring down airfares.
Without active enforcement, real-time monitoring, and accountability mechanisms, airlines will continue to exploit peak season demand.

For India’s aviation story to truly soar, policies must be as grounded in reality as they are visionary. Otherwise, the promise of “reasonable fares” will remain, quite literally, up in the air.