Rajya Sabha Results 2025: National Conference Dominates as BJP Gains Through Strategic Cross-Voting

The Verdict: NC Takes Three, BJP One — A Split Mandate

By: Javid Amin | 24 October 2025

The 2025 Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir delivered a result that encapsulates the region’s post-Article 370 political flux. The National Conference (NC) emerged dominant, bagging three out of four seats, yet the BJP managed to carve out a symbolic but strategic win — aided by suspected cross-voting and alliance cracks within the opposition bloc.

What the Numbers Reveal

Of 88 MLAs, 86 voted while one detained MLA, Mehraj Malik, cast his vote via postal ballot. On paper, the arithmetic favoured the NC, which commanded 41 MLAs, supported by six Independents, and backed by Congress (7) and PDP (2) — a comfortable majority for at least three seats.

Yet the BJP’s Sat Paul Sharma clinched the fourth seat with 32 votes — four more than the party’s numerical strength of 28, prompting immediate allegations of cross-voting and strategic abstentions within the opposition bloc.

Cross-Voting Controversy: The Fault Lines Exposed

The BJP’s extra votes turned what seemed like a foregone conclusion into a drama of defections.
Omar Abdullah reacted sharply, accusing some MLAs of “breaking their promises to the people.”

“We had the numbers, the support, and the strategy. What happened today raises serious questions about political integrity,”
— Omar Abdullah, after the vote count.

Opposition leaders hinted that some Independents — possibly a few from peripheral districts — may have “voted their conscience,” while sources within the Congress and PDP confirmed that two legislators abstained quietly, citing dissatisfaction with NC’s coordination.

The Election Commission, which had issued three separate seat notifications (two individual and one combined for the final two), stated that the results would stand pending any formal complaint.

Political observers see this as a textbook case of strategic engineering by the BJP, leveraging local discontent and exploiting fissures within the opposition’s unity front.

Inside NC: A House Divided?

While the NC celebrated its triple victory, the third seat exposed uncomfortable truths within the party.
G.S. Oberoi (Shammi Oberoi), an NC candidate, defeated his own colleague Imran Nabi Dar, who had also been fielded under the party’s banner in a tactical balancing act.

This intra-party duel — rare in modern J&K politics — suggests factional competition between Omar Abdullah’s camp and a younger reformist bloc aligned with Aga Ruhullah Mehdi and others.
The outcome underscores a brewing identity contest within NC: whether to remain a legacy-driven party anchored in Sheikh Abdullah’s memory, or evolve into a youth-centred, policy-oriented force.

Imran Nabi Dar, though gracious in defeat, later hinted that the party’s decision-making “needed to be more inclusive and transparent.”

“We must listen to the younger cadres and the aspirations of our districts. Internal democracy is our strength, not a weakness.”
— Imran Nabi Dar, post-result statement.

Ground Check: Numbers, Strategy, and Turnout

• Voting Turnout: 86 of 88 MLAs; nearly 98% participation — one of the highest in the UT’s legislative history.
• Postal Vote: Detained MLA Mehraj Malik’s postal ballot counted as valid, highlighting EC’s procedural flexibility.
• Seat Notification Strategy: EC’s split notification (two single + one combined) inadvertently created strategic voting zones, letting smaller blocs recalibrate alliances at the last minute.

Analysts point out that this multi-notification structure allowed both camps to run micro-campaigns targeting fence-sitting MLAs — a move the BJP executed with precision.

BJP’s Tactical Win: Symbol Over Scale

Despite winning only one seat, the BJP framed the outcome as a moral victory.
BJP National General Secretary Tarun Chugh declared:

“The National Conference’s manifesto is a bundle of lies. This result shows that truth and performance speak louder than promises.”

He challenged Omar Abdullah to publish a first-year performance report, accusing the NC of failing on youth employment, PSA reforms, and Article 370 rhetoric.

The BJP, which had little chance to dominate the Assembly arithmetic, smartly converted a symbolic seat into a narrative of resurgence — an image it can sell nationally as proof that its influence in J&K remains resilient post-370.

Congress and PDP: Allies, Not Equals

Both Congress and PDP had pledged support to NC’s candidates in what was dubbed a “strategic anti-BJP front.”
However, the relationship frayed as soon as candidate selection began.

• The Congress skipped NC’s joint strategy meeting two days before the vote, reportedly unhappy over seat-sharing opacity.
• The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, supported NC on the third seat but abstained from the fourth, linking its decision to pending assurances on land rights and regularisation bills.

Congress MLA Ghulam Ahmad Mir, known for his diplomatic tone, summed up the mood:

“Support doesn’t mean silence. We stood by NC for the larger cause, but our concerns about governance and coordination remain.”

Their absence during the final coordination phase likely contributed to the BJP’s slim edge on the fourth seat.

Historical Context: Rajya Sabha Elections Post-Article 370

These elections are the first major upper-house contest in Jammu & Kashmir after the reconstitution of statehood debates gained momentum in 2024.
While full statehood restoration remains pending, the Assembly’s participation in the Rajya Sabha poll signals a partial normalisation of democratic processes.

However, beneath this procedural normalcy lies a new political geometry:

• The NC remains the largest regional force.
• The BJP dominates Jammu but struggles in the Valley.
• The Congress and PDP act as swing players.
• Independents, small in number, now hold outsized leverage in close contests.

The BJP’s ability to coax extra votes underlines the fluid loyalties in a semi-restored polity.

Reading the Result: Winners, Losers, and the Road Ahead

Political analyst Hilal Ahmed remarked that the result “mirrors J&K’s divided political conscience — caught between nostalgia for autonomy and a push for central integration.”

Voices from the Ground

Local reporters from Srinagar and Jammu described mixed reactions:

• Valley sentiment: Relief that NC held ground but disappointment over alleged betrayal by some MLAs.
• Jammu belt: BJP workers celebrated Sat Paul Sharma’s win as vindication of “nationalist politics.”
• Civil society: Concerned over “vote-for-sale” perceptions and growing cynicism among youth.

Street interviews in Anantnag and Baramulla showed residents expressing fatigue:

“Every election feels like drama — the promises are old, only the players change,” said Zahoor Ahmad, a university student.

The Political Message

The 2025 Rajya Sabha election crystallises three messages:

1. No single party can claim ideological monopoly — alliances are transactional and fluid.
2. Regional strength still trumps national outreach in the Valley; the BJP’s future depends on micro-alliances.
3. Internal party democracy and transparency will define voter trust ahead of the next Assembly elections.

Omar Abdullah’s challenge now is twofold — discipline dissent within NC and retain the Congress-PDP-Independent equation through 2026.

Editorial Analysis: Lessons for Political Strategy

1. Vote Management > Vote Count: BJP’s win proves that arithmetic alone doesn’t decide outcomes; management and discipline do.
2. Communication Gap: NC’s reliance on historical legacy rather than performance metrics left room for BJP’s narrative of “truth vs promises.”
3. Alliance Fatigue: Congress and PDP’s conditional cooperation shows that anti-BJP unity needs continuous negotiation, not episodic coordination.
4. Internal Transparency: Fielding multiple candidates (Oberoi vs Dar) exposed the NC’s poor internal messaging; it must learn from this misstep before 2026.
5. Public Perception: The optics of cross-voting may fuel cynicism but also re-energise debate about accountability in J&K’s semi-restored democracy.

Looking Ahead: The 2026 Assembly Elections

With Rajya Sabha seats decided, all eyes now turn to the 2026 Assembly elections, which could restore full legislative sovereignty to Jammu & Kashmir.
Analysts predict a three-cornered contest — NC, BJP, and a Congress-PDP alliance — each recalibrating its base.

• The NC must publish a “one-year performance report” as demanded by critics to rebuild credibility.
• The BJP will likely amplify its symbolic win, positioning itself as the guardian of development and integrity.
• The Congress-PDP combine faces the toughest challenge — to remain relevant in a bipolar landscape.

Bottom-Line: Symbolism, Strategy, and the Shifting Sands of J&K Politics

The 2025 Rajya Sabha outcome is more than numbers — it’s a reflection of strategic adaptability in a region still defining its political identity.

The NC remains the dominant regional voice but must introspect on loyalty, transparency, and delivery.
The BJP, though outnumbered, has proven that symbolism and strategic precision can turn electoral deficits into narrative victories.

As one senior journalist in Srinagar aptly observed:

“The Rajya Sabha poll was not about four seats — it was about who owns the story of Jammu & Kashmir’s future.”

And that story, still unfolding, promises many more twists before 2026.