In the November 2025 Budgam bypoll, three major parties—NC, PDP, and BJP—have fielded candidates from the influential Aga family, turning the contest into a symbolic battle over Shia representation, legacy, and loyalty.
By: Javid Amin | 06 November 2025
The by-election for the Budgam Assembly constituency scheduled for 11 November 2025 marks far more than the filling of a vacated seat. It has emerged as a litmus test for political loyalties, community leadership and the future of Kashmiri politics. What gives it unique weight is that the three major parties—Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—have each fielded a candidate from the same socially-and-clerically influential “Aga” family of Budgam.
The constituency was vacated by the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah when he opted to retain his Ganderbal seat instead, thereby triggering the by-poll.
In this article we will dig into why the Aga factor matters, how the contest has evolved, what the major stakes are, and what the broader implications might be for Kashmir’s politics.
The Aga Factor: Why Does It Matter in Budgam?
Historical and Social Influence
The title “Aga” in Budgam carries weight. It is rooted in the local Shia clerical tradition and denotes a lineage of religious leadership and social influence. The Aga family has long held both spiritual and political sway in the district.
Within the Shia community of Budgam, the Aga family’s role as mediators, community figures and political actors gives them a built-in platform—one that transcends pure party politics.
Vote-Bank and Identity Dynamics
Because of the family’s stature, the candidature of an “Aga” signals to voters not just party allegiance but identity representation. The fact that three “Aga” candidates are contesting under different banners means that voters who may align by community or lineage face a choice that goes beyond ideology: loyalty to family vs party vs personal credibility.
As the Kashmir Life article captures:
“The contest has evolved beyond a test of the NC’s first year in office. It has become a struggle over lineage, loyalty, and ideology, a political duel within a single clan: the Agas.”
Thus the election turns into a microcosm of the interplay between religion, lineage, and democratic politics.
Sect and Sub‐Community Undertones
While the public discourse avoids heavy sectarian framing, analysts highlight subtle sub-community dynamics. For instance, the rivalry involves sub-sects within the Shia community (“Mustafai” vs “Muhammadi” lines) and the candidates’ immediate familial ties.
These under-currents raise the stakes, because the contest is not simply party vs party—it is intra-family, intra-community and thus more emotionally charged.
The Key Players in the Race
Here is a breakdown of the three main candidates and what each brings to the table.
Aga Syed Mehmood (NC)
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Fielded by the NC, Mehmood is described as “a veteran politician, former minister and one of the oldest members of the Aga clan” in Budgam.
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His candidacy appears to be part of the NC’s strategy to preserve its historical support base in Budgam by appealing to continuity of lineage and organisational strength.
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Mehmood publicly stressed his campaign is focused on governance issues (“roads, water, healthcare”) rather than identity politics: “If my campaign or supporters ever use that card (sectarian) I will withdraw”.
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His key challenge: the internal dissent within the Aga family (notably the absence of full support from another influential Aga) and the broader public expectation of performance from the ruling party.
Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi (PDP)
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Fielded by the PDP, Muntazir Mehdi (also from the Aga lineage) is positioned as the challenger to NC dominance in Budgam.
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His campaign emphasises two lines: the perceived abandonment of Budgam by NC (for example, Omar Abdullah vacating the seat) and local governance deficits (poor roads, water issues, healthcare inadequacies).
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The PDP hopes to leverage both identity (as an Aga) and discontent (over unfulfilled promises) to shift the balance.
Aga Syed Mohsin (BJP)
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The BJP too has entered the fray by fielding an “Aga” candidate—though this candidacy has been controversial. Many in the Aga family have publicly clarified that Mohsin is not from the Aga clan (despite his name) and that the similarity is being used to create confusion.
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The BJP’s strategy appears two-fold: first, to capitalise on anti-incumbency against NC and PDP; second, to attempt shifting sectoral and community alignments in favour of the national party.
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For Mohsin’s campaign, the message emphasises development, youth employment, and moving beyond identity politics: “People don’t care about Article 370 or statehood, they want development and jobs.”
Why This By-Poll is More Than a Local Contest
A Test of the Ruling Party’s Popularity
The NC is the ruling party in the Union Territory. The Budgam by-poll is the first major opportunity for opposition parties to test the NC’s strength after its 2024 mandate. The seat was vacated by Omar Abdullah, making this a de facto mid-term review of the government’s performance.
Political observers view this by-poll as a proxy for public sentiment: if NC fails here, it may signal waning support in central Kashmir.
Representation, Loyalty and Community Dynamics
Because all three major candidates hail from the same influential family, the election becomes a battle of allegiance: to party, to lineage, to community. The outcome may reveal whether clan-based politics still hold sway or whether voters are moving into new dynamics of performance and ideology.
One analyst quoted in Kashmir Life said:
“This election should not be viewed as a contest limited to a single constituency. With Ruhullah absent, a nervous NC and a hopeful PDP, this vote will shape the course of electoral battles leading up to 2029.”
Sectarian Undertones and Identity Politics
While none of the major players wants to make sect central to the campaign, the backdrop cannot be ignored: two of the Agas belong to distinct sub-sects within the Shia community (Mustafai vs Muhammadi) and there is concern that sectarian identity may subtly influence loyalties.
If community identity becomes a deciding factor, the result could alter the map of religious-political alignment in Budgam and adjacent districts.
Symbolism of Political Renewal
In a region where many political battles feel inherited rather than fought, this by-poll has the symbolism of renewal. The presence of younger voters, growing impatience with governance delays and a shift in expectation—from symbolic representation to tangible delivery—means that the by-poll outcome could reshape how parties approach elections in J&K.
The BJP, for example, is emphasising “development and jobs” rather than traditional statehood rhetoric. While NC still leans on its legacy, the PDP is positioning itself as the alternative.
Key Campaign Issues & Voter Concerns
Governance and Infrastructure
Despite the prominence given to identity and lineage, the everyday issues in Budgam continue to shape voter sentiment: roads, clean water, healthcare infrastructure, women’s education facilities, and youth employment.
Aga Mehmood (NC) explicitly highlighted that Budgam still lacks a women’s college, suffers narrow roads and has an under-strength hospital.
The PDP candidate is also focusing on local deficits: “poisoned water, bad roads and healthcare”.
Legacy, Trust and Unmet Expectations
The NC’s strong record in Budgam (it has held the seat since 1977 under various forms) gives it an advantage—but also a burden of delivery. Voters are asking whether the political legacy still translates into service.
The fact that Omar Abdullah vacated Budgam shortly after winning it has become a talking point for the opposition. The PDP is framing this as “abandonment of the people by the NC”.
Identity & Representation
For many voters in Budgam, both the Shia clergy-political lineage of the Agas and the question of effective representation matter. If three Agas contest under different banners, the question arises: which “Aga” will actually deliver? Which party truly respects local leadership?
Moreover, the BJP’s attempt to field an “Aga” (even as the family denies association) raises questions about identity being used as an electoral tool.
Youth & Employment
With youth unemployment being a major challenge in Kashmir, any candidate’s promise of jobs, skills development and economic opportunity is scrutinised. The BJP is emphasising this angle; NC and PDP cannot ignore it.
Larger Political Narrative
Beyond local issues, the by-poll is being viewed through the lens of bigger questions: statehood, special status (Article 370/35A), UT governance, centre-region relations. The NC has historically emphasised restoration of 370/statehood; the PDP emphasises local autonomy plus welfare; the BJP focuses on development within the existing framework.
How much these larger ideological issues matter to ordinary Budgam voters remains to be seen—but they influence party narratives and media coverage.
Challenges for Each Party & Candidate
For the NC / Aga Syed Mehmood
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Internal dissent: While Mehmood enjoys legacy support, the absence of full backing from another powerful Aga (Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi) is a risk. The Kashmir Life piece highlights that Ruhullah refused to campaign for NC’s chosen candidate.
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Performance expectations: As the ruling party’s candidate, Mehmood must defend the government’s first-year record—regional parties and voters will measure him not just by lineage but by delivery.
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Sectarian sensitivity: Even as Mehmood distances himself from sect politics, his identification with the “Muhammadi sub-sect” may nevertheless influence perceptions in a multi-sect context.
For the PDP / Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi
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Overcoming legacy gap: The PDP has to convince Budgam voters that it is a viable alternative to a long-standing NC hold. It emphasises unmet demands and disappointment—but needs to show political traction.
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Balancing identity and performance: While Muntazir draws on the Aga lineage, he must offer concrete plans and an image of execution rather than just critique.
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Managing familial ties: The fact that the candidate belongs to the same family gives advantages—but also risks internal disunity or perceptions of opportunism.
For the BJP / Aga Syed Mohsin
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Question of authenticity: The controversy about Mohsin’s claim to belong to the Aga clan may undermine his identity appeal. The family has publicly denied affiliation.
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Breaking into a traditional bastion: Budgam has long been an NC stronghold. The BJP needs to make significant inroads not only in votes, but in changing local expectations and allegiance.
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Narrative shift: The BJP is pushing development-jobs rather than identity politics—but whether this resonates more than lineage in a constituency shaped by clergy-led communal influence remains uncertain.
What To Watch: Key Variables & Indicators
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Voter turnout: A high turnout might signal mobilisation (possibly of dissatisfied voters), while a low figure could reflect voter fatigue or disengagement—both have implications for party messaging.
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Sectarian/Clan alliances: Though not always overt, the subtleties of how different parts of the Shia community align (Mustafai vs Muhammadi) could become visible in voting patterns.
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Performance pledges vs credibility: Which candidate convincingly ties lineage to service delivery? If the NC candidate can show local work, his legacy advantage will matter. If not, it opens space for PDP and BJP.
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Campaign messaging & narratives: Is the campaign framed around identity, or around governance and delivery? Which message resonates more?
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Results as indicator for other seats: Given the by-poll’s timing and centrality, the outcome will be seen as an indicator for the popularity of the NC government and for opposition strength in central Kashmir.
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Post-election behaviour: Will the winning candidate and party quickly act on major promises (roads, education, health, jobs)? Early action will build momentum; delay will reinforce scepticism.
Broader Implications for Kashmir Politics
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Re-alignment of Community Political Influence: If the Aga clan’s influence splits (i.e., votes go across parties), the model of single-line family dominance may weaken, opening up more fluid politics in Budgam and beyond.
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Impact on Statehood/Autonomy Narrative: The three parties are anchored in distinct ideological positions (NC emphasising statehood, PDP emphasising welfare plus autonomy, BJP focusing on governance). The result may reflect which narrative resonates at grassroots level.
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Governance Expectations from Regional Parties: The voters are signalling that charisma and lineage matter, but that credible performance is now non-negotiable. This may force regional parties to rehearse their governance credentials more strongly.
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Emergence of Development-Centric Campaigns: The fact that the BJP emphasises development and job creation over identity shows a shifting template. Budgam could become a case study of how development-led narratives work in Kashmir’s sociopolitical context.
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Testing the Ruling Party’s Hold: If the NC wins comfortably, it signals strength and legitimacy of its first-year governance. If it struggles or loses, the opposition may gain momentum for future elections (including 2029). The by-poll is thus a strategic checkpoint, not just a local contest.
Caveats & Complexities
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While lineage and identity are important, they do not automatically translate into votes. Local issues, candidate credibility, campaign execution, and voter experience matter.
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Sectarian under-tones must be handled carefully: while sub-sect affiliations exist, overt sectarian mobilisation could backfire or polarise in unhelpful ways.
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The entire contest is occurring under the special governance context of the Union Territory of J&K, where the LG and central government continue to wield significant authority. That means local representation still works within certain structural constraints.
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By-polls often have different dynamics compared to full assembly elections: turnout may be lower, local issues may dominate, and political parties may use more targeted mobilisations. Predictions must thus be cautious.
Bottom-Line
The Budgam by-poll is far more than an isolated electoral fixture. It encapsulates the intersecting forces of lineage, community leadership, party politics, governance delivery and regional identity in Jammu & Kashmir. The presence of three “Aga” candidates under three major parties transforms the contest into a high-stakes duel over who truly represents the Budgam voter.
For the NC, the by-poll is a test of whether its legacy still holds water when faced with rising expectations of performance. For the PDP, it’s a chance to challenge dominance and position itself as the credible alternative. For the BJP, it’s an opportunity to expand its footprint in central Kashmir by reframing identity politics into development politics.
Ultimately, the winner will do more than fill a vacant seat—they may shape the contours of Kashmiri politics for years to come: how voters weigh faith vs family vs function, how regional parties respond to demands for delivery, and how identity aligns or diverges from party allegiance.
Regardless of outcome, the Budgam by-poll offers a rich vantage into the changing nature of democratic politics in Kashmir—a region often viewed through security- and identity-centric lenses, but where local governance, community leadership and service delivery are increasingly determining electoral fortunes.
