PDP Breaks NC’s Five-Decade Hold in Budgam: Mehbooba Hails Verdict, Omar Blames Ruhullah for ‘Political Suicide’

PDP’s Seismic Upset in Budgam: Anatomy of a Political Earthquake in Kashmir

By: Javid Amin | 15 November 2025

The Moment That Changed the Map

When Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was declared the winner in the Budgam assembly bypoll, it didn’t just mark another seat change — it marked a historic rupture. Budgam, long considered a near-sacred political citadel of the National Conference (NC), ceded to the PDP for the very first time. In doing so, it exposed deeper fault-lines: voter discontent, internal NC fissures, and the resurgence of a party many thought had retreated into irrelevance.

The bypoll was triggered by Omar Abdullah, then Chief Minister, vacating Budgam after winning both Budgam and Ganderbal in the 2024 Assembly elections. Choosing to retain Ganderbal, he left the Budgam seat open — and dramatically, the NC lost it. Muntazir Mehdi won by 4,478 votes, according to official reports.

The significance goes well beyond a by-election: this is a name-change on the board, but more importantly, a political message. Voters seem to have spoken not just about local issues but about big-picture governance and identity. And NC’s internal contradictions are now playing out in public, with MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi at the center of a storm he appears to have helped raise.

In this longform feature, we unpack the multi-layered story — historical, political, and personal — behind this watershed moment for Kashmir.

Historical Roots: Why Budgam Mattered

01. Budgam’s Legacy as an NC Bastion

To understand the weight of this defeat, one must first probe Budgam’s political history.

NC Dominance: Budgam has long been an NC stronghold. Reports point out that the National Conference has won the Budgam seat in virtually every election since the 1970s.
Religious-Political Lines: Budgam is not just any constituency — it has a significant Shia population, and the Aga family (a clerical, influential Shia family) has held deep sway there.
Omar Abdullah’s Role: In the 2024 Assembly elections, Omar Abdullah himself contested and won from Budgam but chose to vacate it, opting instead for Ganderbal.

Over decades, Budgam was almost synonymous with the NC — both politically and socially. That tie was more than a partisan affiliation; it was embedded in community identity.

02. The Stakes of the 2025 Bypoll

The 2025 bypoll was not just a routine re-election — it came at a politically sensitive time:

One-year Government Test: The NC government under Omar Abdullah was completing its first year. Many saw this bypoll as a test of whether NC had delivered on its promises.
Symbolism of Vacancy: The fact that the seat was vacated by the Chief Minister himself made the bypoll more than local: it became a referendum on NC leadership’s decision-making.
Signal for 2026: For the PDP and its supporters, Budgam represented a potential opening for a bigger revival, possibly setting the tone for the next Assembly elections.

In short, this was not just a battle for a seat but for the narrative of Kashmir’s political future.

The Man of the Hour: Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi

01. Biography & Background

Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, the PDP candidate who won Budgam, brings an interesting mix of religious lineage and professional credentials.

Family Roots: He comes from the influential Aga family of Budgam, a respected Shia clerical family with deep roots in central Kashmir.
Education and Profession: Muntazir is a lawyer by training, with a degree in law (specializing in constitutional law), and is known for his thoughtful approach to policy.
Political Entry: He formally joined the PDP in August 2024 in the presence of senior party leaders.
Previous Contest: He had contested Budgam in the 2024 elections but lost; his 2025 bypoll run was framed not as a first experiment, but as a second, more mature shot.

02. Public Image & Campaign Persona

Muntazir Mehdi is not just another political contender — his campaign was carefully calibrated, and his image resonated with several cross-sections:

Religious Legitimacy: Coming from a clerical family, he has moral legitimacy in Budgam’s socially conservative segments.
Youthful Reformism: Despite his religious roots, he projects a forward-looking vision: youth employment, infrastructure, governance reforms, and dignity in public discourse were central to his campaign.
Bridge Builder: Some analysts see him as a bridge between traditional Shia leadership and a more technocratic, modern political approach — someone who can carry both spiritual authority and governance know-how.

03. Victory Speech: The Promise of Change

In his victory speech, Muntazir struck a tone that was both humble and ambitious:

“If we want to bring about a change in the lives of the people of J&K, it will start with Budgam. … This verdict will force the National Conference to fulfil the promises it made to the people of J&K.”

For his supporters, the win is not just personal; it is a symbolic reclamation of agency — for Budgam, for central Kashmir, and for a younger generation yearning for political renewal.

Anatomy of the Bypoll: Numbers, Ground, and Backlash

01. The Electoral Math

A granular look at the election data helps explain the scale of the upset:

Votes Polled: Muntazir Mehdi secured 21,576 votes; NC’s candidate, Aga Syed Mehmood Al-Mosavi, got 17,098.
Margin: The victory margin stood at 4,478 votes, marking a decisive win.
Turnout: About 50.02% of the ~1.26 lakh registered electorate turned out to vote, a relatively robust turnout for a bypoll.
Contestants: Seventeen candidates contested, including independents, BJP, AAP, and others — but the real battle was between PDP and NC.
NOTA and Others: There was a significant spread: for instance, independent Jibran Dar secured 7,152 votes (~11%), making him a serious third force in the contest.

02. Breaking the Vote: Who Did What, and Why It Mattered

Several factors combined to tip the electoral balance:

Anti‐Incumbency: Voters expressed clear frustration with the NC government’s performance. According to reports, disillusionment had grown over unfulfilled promises related to jobs, electricity, LPG subsidies, reservation policy, and infrastructure.
Neglect of Budgam: According to PDP and local observers, post-2024, NC’s presence in Budgam visibly waned — a constituency that was once constantly courted was now perceived as neglected.
Ruhullah’s Absence: One of the biggest inflection points was Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, MP and long-time NC member, choosing not to campaign. Analysts believe his absence fractured the traditional NC vote base in Budgam.
Moral Legitimacy & Local Identity: Muntazir’s religious lineage, combined with his progressive political message, appealed strongly to Shia voters, youth, and those craving trustworthy governance.

03. On-the-Ground Sentiment: Protest & Mandate

Interviews and ground reports show that this was not business as usual; rather, many Budgam residents voted with a sense of purpose:

Several residents framed their vote as a clear protest: “We are not just rejecting NC’s candidate; we are rejecting the arrogance and disconnect.” (paraphrasing public sentiment from media reports)
For many, the bypoll was not just about changing the MLA: it was about reclaiming political dignity and ensuring that Budgam again becomes a place of active representation.

The Rift Within NC: Ruhullah vs. Omar — A Battle of Souls

01. The Players: Who Is Ruhullah Mehdi?

To understand the impact of his absence, one must understand Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi’s place in NC and Budgam:

Identity & Influence: Ruhullah belongs to the same Aga family, with strong religious and political clout in Budgam.
Political Reputation: He has served multiple terms in the J&K Assembly and held ministerial portfolios.
Current Role: At the time of the bypoll, he was Lok Sabha MP from Srinagar, but his influence in Budgam remained significant because of his family background and prior representation.

Ruhullah has not always been quiet. He has publicly criticized aspects of NC’s leadership, particularly under Omar, suggesting ideological and strategic differences.

02. Omar’s Accusation: “Political Suicide”

After the bypoll result, Omar Abdullah spoke bluntly:

He blamed Ruhullah for NC’s defeat, calling his non-participation in the campaign “political suicide.”
Omar went further: “The person who has won from Budgam will not allow Ruhullah again to stand from there.”
Highlighting his frustration, Omar said that in Budgam, “a large section of voters do not vote on issues but back personalities.”

03. Ruhullah’s Rebuttal: Faith, Humility & a Quiet Rebellion

Ruhullah’s response was measured, yet cutting:

On social media (X), he quoted a Quranic verse: “Arrogance is a recipe for disaster. Consciousness, humility, and introspection is the way.”
By framing his message in religious-moral terms, he positioned himself not as a mere factionalist but as a principled leader calling out arrogance and detachment.
He reportedly held ideological reservations, including over reservation policies and the restoration of Article 370, suggesting that his absence was not opportunistic but principled.

04. Implications for NC: A Party at Crossroads

This internal rupture may have long-term consequences for NC:

Organizational Crisis: With a public spat between its Chief Minister and a senior MP, NC’s internal cohesion is under strain.
Electoral Risk: If Budgam is this volatile, other NC bastions could be at risk. The bypoll could be a warning shot.
Leadership Reckoning: Omar’s call to a working committee to assess the fallout could lead to structural changes, but may also exacerbate factionalism if not handled deftly.

PDP’s Resurgence: Strategy, Opportunity & Momentum

01. Crafting a Narrative of Accountability

The PDP’s messaging was especially effective:

Performance Over Legacy: PDP leaders, including Mehbooba Mufti, framed the victory as a verdict on NC’s governance, not just a local upset.
Muntazir’s Persona: As a learned cleric-lawyer, Muntazir’s candidacy helped PDP blend traditional legitimacy with a modern governance agenda.
Promise of Renewal: PDP emphasized restoring trust, delivering on long-promised welfare measures, and reengaging with Budgam’s ground realities.

02. Political Gains & Calculations

What does this win mean, strategically, for PDP?

Strengthening in Assembly: Reports say that with this win, PDP improved its legislative strength, signaling a possible resurgence.
Momentum Builder: For a party that had struggled in recent cycles, Budgam is a narrative reset — a proof point that PDP can win deeply entrenched seats.
Target for Future Elections: Central Kashmir could become a battlefield where PDP challenges NC not just symbolically, but on performance and identity.
Reinvestment in Faith Politics: By fielding Muntazir, PDP reaffirms that religiously rooted leadership, when paired with governance competence, remains a potent political formula in Kashmir.

Voter Sentiment: Beyond the Margin — What Drove the Shift

01. Protest vs. Participation

A recurring theme in ground reports and analysis is that many voters used this election as a platform of protest.

Some Budgam residents openly expressed that their vote was meant to rebuke NC’s neglect and arrogance.
The fact that nearly half of the electorate turned out in a bypoll suggests that this was not apathy, but deliberate participation — a conscious statement rather than resignation.

02. Identity, Representation & Legitimacy

Budgam’s demographic profile — particularly its Shia population — played a role, but the shift was not purely sectarian:

Muntazir’s family background gave him religious legitimacy, but his appeal extended to younger, issue-oriented voters who cared about governance, opportunity, and integrity.
The absence of Ruhullah from NC’s campaign may have alienated some traditional Shia voters, but PDP’s message managed to consolidate enough of that base while also attracting more change-hungry constituents.

03. Disillusionment with Legacy Politics

For many voters, Budgam’s 2025 bypoll was about rejection of complacency:

There was a sense that NC, confident in its long rule, lacked urgency to deliver. The perception that Budgam was ignored after the 2024 election appears to have hurt deeply.
Voters’ language in media reports — “accountability,” “humility,” “change” — suggests they were not just rejecting a party, but demanding a new covenant of governance.

Political Implications & the Road Ahead

01. For the National Conference: Reckoning or Rupture

The defeat in Budgam forces NC to confront several strategic dilemmas:

Internal Reform or Further Fragmentation: Will the party reintegrate Ruhullah and address dissent, or will this election mark the start of deeper fissures?
Governance Reset: The NC-led government must respond not only symbolically but substantively — by delivering on promises, reengaging with Budgam, and repairing trust.
Narrative Battle: NC needs to rebuild its narrative to remain relevant: shifting from legacy and lineage to performance, humility, and renewal.

02. For the PDP: From Upset to Sustained Growth

The PDP now has a rare opportunity — but also a steep challenge:

Deliver on the Promise: Winning a bypoll raises expectations. PDP must now deliver on infrastructure, welfare, and governance to maintain momentum.
Expand the Base: Can PDP leverage this win to make deep inroads in other NC strongholds? The party will have to replicate its mix of identity legitimacy and reform agenda.
Coalitional Play: With an increased presence, PDP might explore coalitions or alliances, or position itself as a formidable opposition force ahead of 2026.

03. Implications for Kashmir’s Broader Political Landscape

Voter Empowerment: Budgam’s voters demonstrated that they won’t passively accept legacy dominance; they will use elections to demand accountability.
New Leadership Archetypes: Muntazir’s win may signal a shift in Kashmir away from purely dynastic politics toward a blend of religious legitimacy + technocratic competence.
Factionalism as a Force: NC’s internal rift may not be an aberration but a new axis of power — other parties may need to contend with this more openly.
Sectarian Identity vs Performance Politics: The election suggests that while identity remains important, performance and governance are increasingly central to voter decisions.

Risks, Challenges & Warnings

While the PDP’s victory is historic, it does not come without peril — for both parties and for political stability in Kashmir.

Over-Expectation Risk: Budgam’s electorate has awarded a mandate of change. If PDP fails to deliver quickly and visibly, disillusionment could set in.
NC Overreaction: In its attempt to recover, NC might double down on identity politics or personality-driven campaigns, risking polarization.
Factional Polarization: The public blame-game between Omar and Ruhullah could deepen, leading to further splits or even a local realignment.
Governance vs Symbolism: The PDP must ensure that its narrative of humility and service is not just symbolic; it must translate into real governance.
Sustainability of Momentum: A bypoll win is easier than a large-scale election; sustaining this momentum into the 2026 Assembly polls will require disciplined organization, policy clarity, and strong ground work.

Comparative Analysis: Lessons from Other Political Upsets

To better understand Budgam’s implications, it helps to situate this bypoll in a broader comparative context — both within India and in other regional politics.

Legacy Strongholds Lost Before: In Indian politics, it is not uncommon for long-dominant parties to lose seats when anti-incumbency, local neglect, and internal splits converge (examples: state-level shifts in Bihar, West Bengal, etc.). The Budgam case offers a microcosm of such dynamics.
Religious-Political Hybrid Leadership: Muntazir’s success reminds political analysts of other regions where clergy-politicians have played dual roles — combining moral capital with political ambition.
Bypoll as Referendum: Bypolls are increasingly being treated as mini-referendums on governance, not just local contests. Budgam’s bypoll is a textbook case: voters used it to send a message, not just elect a candidate.

Conclusion — A Turning Point, Not the End

The Budgam bypoll of 2025 is unlikely to be remembered simply as a seat-changing election. Rather, it will be seen as a turning point: a moment when political loyalties, identity, and governance expectations converged to upend decades of status quo.

For the PDP, it is a vindication, a comeback, and a moral victory — but also a test. The party now has the burden of translating this symbolic win into real governance and wider political gains.
For the NC, the loss is a warning shot. The very foundations of its dominance — internal unity, cult of leadership, and legacy — are under threat. If it fails to introspect and reform, Budgam may not be the only seat it loses.
For Kashmirans, especially in Budgam, the result may bring a renewed sense of political agency. Their message was clear: you can’t take us for granted, and loyalty alone is not a substitute for delivery.

In the end, Budgam 2025 may not just be “the bypoll that happened because Omar vacated the seat.” It may be remembered as the bypoll that reset Kashmir’s political scoreboard.