Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Elections 2024: A Close Race with Potential Surprises
By: Javid Amin
As the dust settles on the voting booths in the picturesque yet politically charged region of Jammu and Kashmir, a flurry of exit polls and projections are shedding light on what might be one of the most intriguing elections in the territory’s recent history. Major exit polls, such as those from Dainik Bhaskar, Gulistan, C-Voter, and People’s Pulse, point to a highly competitive landscape where the traditional strongholds of the National Conference-Congress alliance are being challenged by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and independent candidates could very well play the role of kingmakers.
The Political Landscape: A Snapshot of J&K’s Unique Dynamics
Post-2019, following the abrogation of Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a shift in its political undercurrents. National parties like the BJP have sought to expand their foothold, emphasizing development, integration, and security. On the other hand, regional stalwarts like the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have been vocal in their opposition to the central government’s policies in the region. Amidst this political tug-of-war, the Congress party has joined forces with the NC, bringing with it a legacy of being one of India’s oldest national parties with an enduring influence in the region.
This election is an acid test for these alliances and independent candidates who are striving to assert their identity and relevance amidst the growing influence of larger political players.
Exit Poll Predictions: A Neck-and-Neck Race
Dainik Bhaskar Poll: A Narrow Lead for the NC-Congress Combine
According to Dainik Bhaskar, the National Conference-Congress coalition is expected to win between 35 to 40 seats. The BJP, driven by a strong campaign and its existing base in Jammu, may end up with 20 to 25 seats. Independent candidates are likely to capture 12 to 16 seats, a significant presence that could tip the scales in a coalition scenario. The PDP, however, seems to be lagging, projected to secure only 4 to 7 seats.
Gulistan Poll: A Tense Battle with Independents in the Spotlight
The Gulistan poll paints an even tighter picture. Here, the NC-Congress alliance is slated to capture 31 to 36 seats, while the BJP appears close behind with 28 to 30 seats. Independent candidates might secure 19 to 23 seats, making them key players in any government formation. Meanwhile, the PDP may obtain 5 to 7 seats.
C-Voter Poll: Competitive Numbers for the Big Players
The C-Voter poll predicts 30 to 48 seats for the NC-Congress coalition, closely followed by the BJP with 27 to 32 seats. The PDP and independents are projected to have a relatively similar performance, each likely landing between 6 to 12 seats.
People’s Pulse Poll: A Possible Win for NC-Congress
In a more optimistic projection for the NC-Congress alliance, People’s Pulse suggests that this coalition may lead with 46 to 50 seats, followed by the BJP with 23 to 27 seats. According to this survey, the PDP might capture 7 to 11 seats, while independents could secure 6 to 10 seats.
While these exit polls provide a preliminary glimpse into potential outcomes, they remain speculative. With the diverse and multi-faceted political environment of Jammu and Kashmir, anything can happen when the final votes are counted.
Breaking Down the Major Contenders
1. National Conference (NC)-Congress Alliance: Banking on Regional Roots and Legacy
The NC-Congress alliance has been a powerful force in J&K for decades. The National Conference, helmed by the Abdullah family, has strong roots in the Valley and appeals to those who favor regional identity and autonomy. The Congress, meanwhile, brings a pan-Indian legacy and appeals to both rural and urban voters across Jammu and Kashmir. Their coalition this election season is a strategic attempt to consolidate anti-BJP sentiment and attract voters who desire a return to pre-Article 370 political arrangements.
Key Factors:
- Reinstatement of Autonomy: A significant chunk of the alliance’s voter base favors the restoration of Article 370 or, at the very least, increased political autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir.
- Economic Development: With unemployment a persistent issue, the alliance has emphasized the need for inclusive economic growth and job creation.
- Social Cohesion: Given the diverse demographic in J&K, the alliance has focused on uniting different communities and reducing regional tensions.
2. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): National Integration and Development Agenda
The BJP’s projection of 20-30 seats across various polls underscores its growing influence, especially in Jammu, where it has a solid voter base. The party’s aggressive campaign centered on the integration of Jammu and Kashmir with the rest of India and its post-Article 370 development promises have resonated with voters concerned about national security and economic progress.
Key Factors:
- National Security and Anti-Terrorism: The BJP has campaigned on its record of reducing militancy in the region, showcasing its actions as a step toward long-term peace.
- Development Initiatives: The party’s emphasis on infrastructure projects, tourism growth, and investments has appealed to voters who prioritize economic development.
- Unity and Integration: BJP has positioned itself as the party committed to integrating Jammu and Kashmir fully into the Indian Union, an appeal especially resonant in Jammu and Ladakh.
3. People’s Democratic Party (PDP): Striving to Reclaim Relevance
The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, is projected to secure fewer seats compared to its previous performances. However, the party retains a base that views it as a critical voice for Kashmiris’ rights and autonomy. Since parting ways with the BJP in 2018, the PDP has attempted to reconnect with voters who felt alienated by its previous alliance with a national party.
Key Factors:
- Autonomy and Self-Determination: The PDP’s opposition to the abrogation of Article 370 resonates with voters who are deeply attached to J&K’s former special status.
- Economic Struggles: With a focus on Kashmir’s unique economic challenges, the PDP has highlighted issues like unemployment and lack of access to resources.
- Appeal to the Youth: By focusing on young voters and their concerns, the PDP has attempted to recapture the audience that once supported its vision for Kashmir.
4. Independent Candidates: Potential Kingmakers
The rise of independent candidates in this election, as evidenced by projections, reflects a growing disillusionment with traditional political entities. These candidates are expected to win a significant number of seats, making them potential kingmakers in a coalition setup.
Key Factors:
- Localized Issues: Independent candidates have tailored their campaigns to address hyper-local concerns, such as agriculture, small business development, and infrastructure needs.
- Anti-Establishment Sentiment: Many independents have garnered support by positioning themselves as alternatives to the “status quo” parties.
- Youth Appeal: In some cases, independents are young candidates who have appealed to the region’s youth by focusing on issues like education and job opportunities.
Key Issues That Shaped the Election
- Article 370: This remains a polarizing topic, with the BJP standing firm on its decision to abrogate the article and the NC-Congress and PDP advocating for its restoration.
- Unemployment: Economic distress, particularly among the youth, has made job creation a hot-button issue for voters. All major parties have promised solutions to tackle the high unemployment rate.
- Security and Militancy: The region’s security situation has been central to the BJP’s campaign, but opposition parties have raised concerns about alleged heavy-handed tactics.
- Regional Development: Infrastructure projects and improvements in healthcare, education, and agriculture are issues on which all parties have attempted to distinguish themselves.
A Close Contest: What to Expect on Counting Day
Given the varied exit polls, the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections are bound to culminate in an interesting result. No party has an absolute edge, making alliances, both pre and post-election, critical. The NC-Congress combine could secure the highest number of seats, but the BJP’s influence and the role of independents make the formation of a stable government uncertain.
In the end, while exit polls provide a fascinating glimpse into likely outcomes, they are not conclusive. In a region as complex as Jammu and Kashmir, only the final count will reveal the true preferences of its people.
