A Region on Edge: Why the Next 15 Days Matter
By: Javid Amin | 28 Aug 2025
The Kashmir Valley, nestled between the Himalayas, is no stranger to nature’s fury. While the Jhelum River and its tributaries have recently receded below danger levels, the next 10–15 days of monsoon rains remain a make-or-break period. Authorities fear that even moderate rainfall could push the river back into danger zones, triggering flash floods, waterlogging, and landslides.
Divisional Commissioner Kashmir, Anshul Garg, has sounded a serious advisory. His message is clear: while the immediate danger may have passed, Kashmir is not out of the woods yet.
The State of Water Levels: A Fragile Calm
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At Ram Munshi Bagh in Srinagar, the Jhelum has dropped below flood levels, bringing relief to the city’s flood-prone neighbourhoods like Rajbagh and Bemina.
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At Sangam in Anantnag, another critical gauge station, water levels also show signs of receding.
Yet, experts caution that the soil remains heavily saturated from recent downpours. This means even a short burst of rain could quickly escalate into flash floods.
High Alert and Ground Preparedness
Over 150 vulnerable flood spots are under 24/7 surveillance by joint teams of:
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The Army
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The State Disaster Response Force (SDRF)
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The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF)
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The Irrigation & Flood Control Department (I&FC)
Sandbags, boats, and evacuation routes are ready. Emergency control rooms have been reactivated across the Valley.
Public Advisory: Citizens at the Heart of Safety
Garg issued a heartfelt appeal to Kashmiris:
“Your resilience during the recent flood scare was commendable. But the risk remains. Please stay alert, follow weather advisories strictly, and avoid unnecessary travel near riverbanks.”
The advisory highlights citizen responsibility as a cornerstone of disaster preparedness. Unlike in 2014, when delayed alerts worsened the tragedy, this time, early warnings and public cooperation have already prevented panic.
Community Role: Beyond Survival, Towards Resilience
Kashmir’s people are no strangers to adversity. In the wake of the 2014 floods, communities learned the value of collective action. From volunteer rescue missions to local food distribution networks, ordinary citizens often stepped up when official channels were overwhelmed.
Today, officials are urging residents not only to stay vigilant but also to share suggestions for long-term flood management. Ideas such as:
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Reviving traditional flood channels like Nallah Mar.
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Community-based monitoring groups in flood-prone areas.
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Local disaster drills to ensure families know how to evacuate.
This approach shifts the conversation from reactive relief to proactive resilience.
Monsoon Science: Why Kashmir is Vulnerable
Kashmir’s geography makes it particularly prone to flash floods and cloudbursts:
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Surrounded by the Pir Panjal and Zanskar ranges, rainfall funnels quickly into valleys.
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The Jhelum River’s shallow depth and encroachments on floodplains reduce its carrying capacity.
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Glacial meltwater adds to the monsoon load, creating a dangerous mix.
Experts point out that climate change is intensifying rainfall patterns. What once was a week-long drizzle is now arriving as short, violent cloudbursts.
Post-2014 Lessons: Have They Been Learned?
Kashmiris cannot forget September 2014, when the Jhelum swelled beyond its capacity, submerging 90% of Srinagar and displacing nearly 500,000 people.
Since then, the government has promised:
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Dredging of the Jhelum to increase its capacity.
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Construction of alternate flood spill channels.
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Reinforcement of embankments in urban areas.
However, as Chief Minister Omar Abdullah recently pointed out, the progress has been uneven and opaque. Many residents believe more could—and should—have been done.
The Human Angle: Living with Fear and Hope
For families living in Rajbagh, Bemina, and low-lying hamlets of South Kashmir, each rainfall brings back memories of loss.
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Parents still recall carrying children on makeshift boats in 2014.
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Shopkeepers fear waterlogging will once again ruin their goods.
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Students worry about interruptions in education.
And yet, the Kashmiri spirit of resilience shines through. Neighbours check on each other. Volunteers remain on standby. Faith and determination continue to guide survival.
Towards a Safer Future: The Way Forward
For Kashmir to break free from this annual cycle of anxiety, long-term planning is non-negotiable. Experts recommend:
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Transparent audits of all post-2014 flood mitigation projects.
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Community participation in decision-making on embankments and dredging.
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Investment in green infrastructure, such as restoring wetlands that naturally absorb floodwaters.
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Integration of climate science into urban planning and housing regulations.
Bottom-Line: Vigilance Today, Resilience Tomorrow
The next 15 days are crucial. If residents stay vigilant, follow advisories, and authorities maintain transparency, Kashmir can navigate this monsoon phase without catastrophe. But in the long run, the Valley needs more than survival—it needs resilient systems, empowered communities, and climate-smart planning.
As Divisional Commissioner Garg put it:
“With continued public support, Kashmir will overcome this challenge. But we must prepare, not just react.”
