Strategic Truce in Kashmir: Congress and PDP Back NC to Block BJP in Rajya Sabha Polls

Kashmir Political Shift: Congress & PDP Back NC to Block BJP in Rajya Sabha | J&K Politics

By: Javid Amin | 23 October 2025

A Tactical Alliance for the “Larger Cause”

The political winds in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) have shifted markedly. In what is being seen as a strategic manoeuvre, the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC) has managed to bring two significant parties—the Indian National Congress (Congress) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—on board in its campaign for the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections. The aim: deny the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) any of the four seats at stake. What seemed improbable just weeks ago has now materialised into a united front—albeit with caveats and conditionalities.

This article unpacks the alliance, its mechanics, implications for the BJP, and the broader stakes for J&K’s polity.

Setting the Stage: Numbers, Context and Stakes

The Election Framework

Four Rajya Sabha seats from J&K are up for grabs. The elections will be held in the J&K Legislative Assembly where the MLAs vote for the Upper House members.

The key players:

NC, with 41 MLAs in the Assembly.
Support from six Independents backing NC. (Reports suggest NC enjoys the tacit or overt support of six independent MLAs.)
Congress adds six MLAs in support of NC’s cause.
PDP has three MLAs and is supporting NC on at least one seat, with conditional support.
BJP has 28 MLAs.

With this arithmetic in play, NC appears positioned to comfortably secure three out of the four seats. Yet the fourth remains a tight contest—hinging on cross-party allegiances, absenteeism, disciplined voting and the ability of NC to keep allied MLAs aligned.

Historical & Political Context

The backdrop: the 2024 J&K Legislative Assembly elections saw the NC-Congress alliance (within the INDIA bloc) secure a majority, and NC emerge as the largest party.

However, the relationship between these parties is not without friction. Recent media reports highlight tensions—particularly around seat-sharing, trust deficits and divergent priorities. For example, the Congress has accused NC of reneging on promises of a “safe seat” in past negotiations.

In this sense, the current arrangement is less a natural alliance of perfect harmony and more a calculated convergence of interests—driven by the goal of keeping the BJP out of this specific battle.

The Congress: Setting Aside Differences for the “Larger Cause”

The Congress’s decision to fully back NC’s candidates in the J&K Rajya Sabha elections marks a noteworthy departure from its usual posture of contestation—even within alliances.

The Move

On October 23, 2025, the Congress announced that its six MLAs will support NC’s candidates. JK PCC Chief Tariq Hameed Karra articulated that the party is “keeping its differences with NC on the back-burner” to serve J&K’s larger interests.

Underlying Motivations

Blocking the BJP: The Congress frames its decision as putting the region’s interests and secular democratic values above immediate seat-sharing squabbles. “To keep divisive forces out” seems to be the motivating slogan.
Image & Identity: For the Congress in J&K, this is also about reminding voters of its foundational identity—pluralistic, secular, region-sensitive. The announcement explicitly referenced “our sensitivities as a suffering state as also a tested voice for a diverse and secular India.”
Negotiation Leverage: While committing support now, the Congress may also be buying time—holding onto future bargaining power in by-polls and other contests. Reports in The Indian Express suggest the Congress still harbours dissatisfaction over NC’s handling of seat-sharing.

Strategic Risks

Future credibility: By publicly shelving grievances, the Congress may lose leverage or be seen as compromised.
Internal dissent: Given previous mistrust, not all party segments may view this tacit pact favourably—especially local cadres who see NC as the stronger partner.
Seat-sharing fallout: Once the Rajya Sabha poll is done, the seat-sharing in upcoming Assembly or by-elections may re-ignite tensions.

The PDP: Conditional Support and Clear Agenda

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, is extending support—but with caution, conditions and clear priorities.

The Public Statement

Mehbooba Mufti announced that the PDP would vote for NC’s candidate on the third Rajya Sabha seat but not the fourth. She spelled out why:

The PDP has only three votes; it wants to invest them where they count.
The support is conditional: the PDP wants assurances that the NC government will back two important bills — one on land rights/regularisation, another on regularising daily wagers.
The PDP frames this as part of a struggle to keep “communal/divisive forces” out.

The Conditions

Land Regularisation Bill: Many families in J&K who occupied state land pre-2019 face eviction or legal ambiguity. The PDP is demanding the NC deliver a legislative bill to protect these rights.
Daily Wagers Regularisation: Long-serving daily-wage workers across departments (PHE, R&B, Health, Education) want job security, regularisation and governmental recognition. The PDP wants the NC government to commit to this.

Why this strategy?

The PDP has fewer numbers and less structural strength than NC, so its approach is pragmatic and issue-centric.
By supporting one seat and withholding from the fourth, the PDP preserves space to claim distance and independence—in case NC fails to honour the conditions or if the fourth seat becomes contentious.
It signals to its constituency (especially in Kashmir Valley) that it remains a principled force, not simply a seat-sharing partner.

Potential Pitfalls

If NC fails to deliver on the bills, PDP’s credibility may suffer with voters.
The partial support may be mis-interpreted by NC as lukewarm; alliance friction could re-surface.
In a tightly contested election, if the fourth seat flips, blame games could begin—with PDP possibly being targeted for not investing all support.

The NC’s Position: Comfortable Majority, but Still Vigilant

The NC enters the contest with significant structural advantages—but also key vulnerabilities.

Structural Strength

41 MLAs in the J&K Assembly.
Support from six Independents (as reported) pushing its effective tally higher.
The backing of Congress (6 MLAs) and PDP (3 MLAs) adds roughly nine more votes — lifting the coalition tally to an estimated ~56-57.
These numbers suggest NC is well placed to win three of the four seats with a good margin.

Key Moves and Messaging

NC’s chief whip issued a strict directive to its MLAs: be present, vote, don’t abstain.
NC president Farooq Abdullah reiterated the cooperation from Congress and underscored the urgency of the opposition front.
NC fields candidates for all four seats: e.g., Chowdry Mohammed Ramzan, Sajjad Kitchloo, Shammi Oberoi and Imran Nabi Dar.

The Fourth Seat Ambiguity

While three seats appear near-certain, the fourth is up for grabs. Why?

Once three seats are secured, the candidate for the fourth will be vying essentially against BJP’s remaining votes, Independents, cross-votes, possible abstentions.
With PDP not backing the fourth seat, and Congress having set aside differences but still harbouring reservations, the margin becomes slimmer.
The BJP is actively in the race: it has fielded candidates and will fight for the fourth seat aggressively.

Strategic Imperatives for NC

Hold the alliance together: Ensure no MLA defects, abstains or votes cross-party.
Deliver on promises to allies (especially PDP) so that issue-based support holds.
Manage internal alliance tensions (Congress/NC historic mistrust) and local equations (Independents, regional players).
Use this win to strengthen its upper-hand in J&K politics—and send a message to BJP and the centre.

The BJP’s Challenge: Defensive Mode in a Hostile Terrain

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), this moment represents a strategic setback and a high-stakes contest.

Ground Reality

BJP has 28 MLAs in J&K Assembly.
It has fielded three candidates for the four Rajya Sabha seats.
The alliance of NC with Congress and conditional support from PDP has significantly diluted BJP’s chances of sweeping any seats.

Strategic Implications

BJP cannot afford to lose all seats—the symbolic loss would damage its projection of strength in J&K, especially post-the special-status abrogation era.
It must rely not just on its MLAs but any potential defections, abstentions from opposition MLAs, or lower turnout from allied blocs.
The fourth seat becomes critical: if BJP manages to snag it, it retains some influence; if not, its footprint in J&K Rajya Sabha representation shrinks dramatically.

Key Risks

The alliance’s disciplined voting and high turnout reduce room for surprises in BJP’s favour.
Any cross-party vote or abstention may cost BJP, and given the arithmetic, every vote counts.
A clean sweep by NC may force BJP into defensive mode—not just for J&K but symbolically across north-India regional politics.

Why This Alliance Matters: Beyond Just Four Seats

This coalition of Congress, PDP and NC is not just about a Rajya Sabha election. It signals deeper currents in J&K—and potentially beyond.

1. Opposition Unity in Practice

The alliance demonstrates that regional parties (PDP, NC) and national party (Congress) are willing to put aside their differences to take on the governing party in a high-stakes contest.
This could be a template for the broader INDIA bloc (the pan-India opposition alliance) to coordinate in other states and elections.

2. The J&K Political Reset

Since 2019, J&K’s political architecture has been in flux (special status abrogation, re-organisation of territory, new electoral dynamics). This alliance may mark a new configuration:

NC reasserting dominance in the Valley and Jammu by leveraging allies.
Congress and PDP repositioning themselves for relevance in a changed landscape.
BJP being challenged on its home turf, forcing it to recalibrate strategies.

3. Issue-Based Politics Resurgent

The PDP’s insistence on the land regularisation and daily-wager bills shows that even in high-stakes strategic elections, policy deliverables are making a comeback.
This could herald a shift in J&K politics from pure identity politics and power tussles to more governance/rights-based politics.

4. Message to Centre and the BJP

A strong showing by NC (with allies) will send a message to the central government and the BJP that opposition-led fronts can mobilise—even in regions where BJP has traditionally been dominant.
It may influence how Delhi treats regional aspirations, legislative agendas, and local alliances.

Challenges and Unknowns: What Could Go Wrong?

No alliance is without fault lines. The following are the key variables that could alter the expected outcome.

A. Alliance Friction

Congress-NC trust deficit remains beneath the surface. Reports indicate the Congress felt it was offered a less-safe seat in past negotiations.
PDP’s conditional support means it might withdraw or reduce support if NC delays or fails to deliver on legislative promises.
Independents and smaller parties may waver or negotiate last-minute deals.

B. Defections, Abstentions & Cross-Votes

Even one MLA abstaining or voting against the ribbon could shift the result, especially for the fourth seat where margins may be razor-thin.
The BJP may attempt persuasion or inducements (political, financial or otherwise) to derail the alliance’s vote bloc.

C. Legislative Delivery

For the alliance to be credible beyond the poll, the NC government must deliver on the bills the PDP stipulated and reassure the Congress on its longer-term interests. Failure to do so could unravel the truce.

D. Broader Electoral Fallout

If the Congress or PDP’s grassroots cadres feel the alliance has compromised too much, it could hurt their base in future Assembly or Parliamentary elections.
For the NC, if it overplays its dominance, it may provoke backlash from smaller allies, Independents or different factions.

What If the Fourth Seat Goes to BJP – Or NC Sweeps All Four?

Scenario 1: NC wins three, BJP wins one

Outcome: NC anchored alliance secures its mandate, while BJP retains one foothold. The alliance can claim success but may face internal questions about why they didn’t make four.
Implication: BJP remains relevant; alliance has momentum.

Scenario 2: NC wins all four seats

Outcome: A clean sweep. The NC-alliance asserts dominance in J&K Rajya Sabha representation.
Implication: Strong signal to BJP and Centre. Congress and PDP gain by-association but risk being overshadowed by NC. Pressure increases on NC to deliver on governance.

Scenario 3: BJP manages more than one seat or upsets via cross-votes

Outcome: Major upset. The alliance narrative weakens; NC’s dominance challenged; Congress/PDP face questions about the deal.
Implication: BJP gains momentum; regional opposition unity may fracture.

What to Watch Next

For those tracking J&K politics (and national implications), the following indicators will be important:

Voting day & turnout: Will all MLAs of NC-allied parties be present? Any surprise absentees?
Whips & voting discipline: How strongly NC enforces its whip, how Congress/PDP respond.
Post-poll promise delivery: Especially the bills on land regularisation and daily wage workers.
Public messaging: How the parties spin the outcome for local audiences (Jammu vs Kashmir) and national audiences.
By-election/Assembly echoes: Will this alliance carry over to local politics? Will seat-sharing negotiations follow the Jonestown of this poll?

Bottom-Line: A Moment of Political Realignment

The decision by Congress and PDP to back the NC in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections is more than a corridor-deal—it represents a potential turning point in J&K’s political landscape. While it may appear tactical, its reverberations could define how opposition parties rally against the BJP in the region and nationally.

For the NC, it is an opportunity to consolidate power and re-define its role in a changed J&K. For Congress and PDP, it offers a moment of relevance, albeit one that requires cautious navigation. For the BJP, it’s a test of strength, strategy and adaptability in a region it cannot afford to lose entirely.

In short: the next few days are not just about who wins four seats—they are about who frames the future in J&K politics.