J&K Govt Formation: 6 Possible Scenarios That Can Play Out
With PDP President Mehbooba Mufti demanding Confidence Building Measures rather than mere assurances from the central government on the implementation of the Agenda of Alliance, the impasse over the government formation in J&K is likely to linger on for some more time. The hopes of an early resolution of the crisis died down when Mehbooba after meeting Governor N N Vohra in Jammu only hardened her position. Talking to media, she sought concrete concessions from the centre before she could agree to resume the alliance with BJP.
Here are the six possible scenarios that can play out.
2. The coalition could very well break if both the parties dig in their heels: PDP insists on political and economic CBMs that strain BJP’s long-standing ideological stance on J&K forcing the saffron party to resist the alleged “blackmail”.
3. In the absence of a viable alternative alliance option, both parties will be obliged to contest fresh polls. The outcome will depend on how they spin their bitter falling out and how the people in Kashmir and Jammu interpret it.
PDP could also return to its familiar political rhetoric on the state and seek absolute majority to enable it to pursue the resolution of Kashmir, a promise that might acquire a ring of credibility given Mehbooba’s sacrifice of the chief ministerial chair following her father’s demise.
5. If the people in the two regions take the parties at their face value, there is a possibility of the surge of support in their favour. In such a situation while PDP could hope to garner around forty seats in the state, enabling it to form a government on its own with the support of a few independents, BJP in Jammu is unlikely to better its last performance, reducing it to playing its practiced role of an aggressive nationalist opposition party in the state.
6. Other possibility is that either one or both the parties will lose. PDP has more chances of gaining less. Considering the political dynamics in the Valley, riven as it is by a pronounced separatist dimension, the political mandate could once again end up being largely split between National Conference and PDP, with possibly the PDP still emerging as the largest single party. So, in the end up we might end up with the same ruling arrangement that PDP is seeking to change to its favour.