Previous government did not take flood warning seriously until the devastation happened is not true: Sonam Lotus
‘GoI has approved 3 Doppler radars for all three regions’
Lotus, the ‘most sought-after man’ in the Kashmir valley, especially after the last year’s floods, the worst in Kashmir’s living memory, said that his department was in a process of developing weather apps for Jammu & Kashmir. Lotus also asserted that there was no truth in the claims made in a recent newspaper report that the month of July will have 12 days of rainfall, because, according to the weath¬erman, the online forecasting portals such as Accu¬weather.com were not completely reliable. He maintained that his department was only making medium to short-term weather forecast, using both scientific and traditional knowledge.
- The weather patterns have changed across the globe, but why do we find prominent effects only in Kashmir. Even Jammu, the other end of the state, is not showing any marked changes? (Mubashir Hassan, Srinagar)
The weather has changed and it is part of global change. The Kashmir and Chenab valleys and Pir Panjal mountain ranges are more vulnerable to vagaries of weather conditions because of their topography. The climate has changed globally. Even for Jammu the weather is showing signs of change. For example the monsoon in Jammu usually starts in June, but this time around it first struck Kashmir. That is because the wind flow was from the Arabian Sea.
- There are rumours doing rounds that Kashmir may witness, God forbid, another floods this September, what do you have to say about this? (S Shafi, Srinagar)
Last year’s floods were unimaginable, probably the worst in last 100 years. The heavy rainfall recently on 28 and 29 March also created disturbance and a flood-like situation, as it was a record breaking rainfall. Also, the very recent rainfall on 24 June broke record of June 1996. Srinagar city recorded 113 mm rainfall in 24 hours, whereas in 1996, around the same time, it was much less. The point is that we don’t issue long range forecast. We only use medium to short range forecast, because these are highly reliable.
- What about your warning system to forecast weather, especially the kind of weather we are facing from last year? How much time, generally, does it take you to predict?
We rely on meteorological tools like INSAT/KALPANA, NWP (Numerical Weather Products) generated at our headquarters in New Delhi. And we also monitor through AWS (Automated Weather System) and manual observatory 24/7. Besides, we also make use of recently installed Doppler Weather Radar. To sum up, we use both scientific and traditional knowledge and the experience of the forecaster also comes handy.
- Do you have uninterrupted power supply at your station?
Laughs…! Yes, we have uninterrupted power supply at our station since April 2015.
- What is the range of Doppler radar?
It has a range of 100 km radius.
- But Delhi’s Doppler radar has a range of 300 km radius, why can’t we get that when it is so important for us in Kashmir?
It is already installed. The Government of India (GoI) has approved three Doppler radars having range of 500 km radius, one each for Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh under a project called Integrated Himalayan Programme.
- In the United States the system of radar directly forecasts weather on webpage and there are live updates, do you have any such plans?
We are also improving all the time and upgrading our systems.
- How well equipped is Kashmir’s weather department as compared to other weather departments in India?
We are fairly equipped to predict all sorts of weather conditions. But up-gradation, as you know, is a continuous process.
- Which are the latest gadgets and equipments used worldwide and how long will it take for us to procure them, if we don’t possess them now?
It is a very good question. Other countries also use DWR (Doppler Weather Radar), of course with longer range, finer resolution and use of better NWP. However, we will bring to the notice of people at the helm to get the best of infrastructure for the department.
- Are we expecting district-wise weather monitoring centres too?
We are already monitoring weather at district levels.
- Is it true that the previous government did not take flood warning seriously until the devastation happened?
No, it is not true.
- What am I, as an individual, supposed to do to prevent this changing weather pattern? Can I really do my bit?
You can raise awareness among public to care for nature and environment. You can lead the way as a responsible and civilised citizen.
- Previously, there would be rains for days together but no flood threat. Why is this happening now? Even a single day’s rain leads to a situation like what happened last year in September. Isn’t this scary? If in August we have more rains what will happen then? (S Saleem, Kashmir)
As per the data available with our department the rainfall in March and June broke previous records. Is any data available with you to substantiate your argument? Weather forecast is a very complex issue. We’re in the process of developing weather apps, especially for Jammu and Kashmir.
Was there any warning issued from MeT department about heavy rains in September last year?
Indeed, there was a warning issued about heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
- Revolutionising plantation and taking care of our ecosystem should be the mantra from experts like you, Mr. Lotus.
We do educate people regarding this. We spread awareness on a regular basis.
- Not people alone, the government too as it lacks a comprehensive policy framework?
Apart from educating our younger generation about the science of meteorology and weather forecasting we also educate them about the importance of sustainable development.
- In places like Italy they lease out forests to ensure that there is proper care and nourishing of natural re¬sources while here we brutally plunder our forests, any thoughts?
Apart from raising awareness I have no control on people’s actions.
- Of course, you’re doing a great job. But putting our words forward to the government and plan systematically to frame a policy for coming decades could be a service to environment. And we all have a responsibility, isn’t it?
That is our job and duty on a regular basis. We are trying our best. Thank you all for your questions.
