Government formation: Possible Alliances

With the J&K assembly poll results throwing up a hung house, all eyes are now fixed on who’ll form the new government in the state and what permutations and combinations emerge in coming days.
While the Peoples Democratic Party—which has emerged as single-largest by bagging 28 seats in the 87-seat house—has asserted that it has “kept all its options open”, the National Conference and Bharatiya Janata Party are, on the other hand, “exploring possibilities”. The “other” candidates, for all practical purposes, hold a key to government formation in J&K.
PDP got 28 seats, NC 15, BJP 25, Congress 12 and others 7 in the recently-held assembly polls whose results were declared Tuesday.

OPTION 1: PDP+BJP ALLIANCE
According to observers, in view of the overall winning tally, the PDP-BJP government looks like a “strong possibility.” However, given their “poles apart” standing on several contentious political issues, observers say, it remains to be seen how this possible formation unfolds.
“It is not a difficult proposition if the two parties chalk out a common minimum programme to secure their party interests and interests of the people who they represent. The idea has to be governance and development. Nothing else ,” said an analyst.
He said “this kind of a formation will ensure a stable government that can represent aspirations of all regions of J&K—Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh.” “And since BJP is in power in New Delhi, it would be an added advantage for this alliance,” he said. “But again, given the poles-apart standing of BJP and PDP on issues like Article 370 and resolution of Kashmir, it remains to be seen how the leadership of both the parties address them before reaching to any conclusion on the alliance.”

OPTION 2: NC+BJP+OTHERS
While Chief Minister Omar Abdullah yesterday ruled out post-poll alliance with the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP), a “strong possibility” of a National Conference-BJP alliance— with support of other candidates—cannot be ruled out given that no party in J&K would like to go for a re-election.
This formation however, according to sources, is faced with a contentious issue of selecting a chief minister for the Muslim-majority state, given that NC tally is just 15 and BJP’s 25. “It is a serious issue that requires a resolution beforehand,” said a National Conference leader, insisting not to be named. “And then we can’t compromise on issues like Article 370 which the BJP wants to abrogate. So unless such issues are resolved, there is less possibility of the BJP-NC alliance in J&K. But is not an impossible proposition if the sole idea is governance and development of J&K rather than politics on contentious issues.”

OPTION 3: PDP+CONGRESS+OTHERS
According to sources, the possibility of a ‘PDP+Congress+others’ alliance also can’t be ruled out.
“In this formation, it requires to be seen who will be the ‘other’ candidates in support,” they said.
Sources said though PDP has kept all its options open, it would like to “avoid this kind of a formation” given the “bitter past” of the two parties and the “future prospects.” “This alliance would be more like an unstable formation. And since BJP is in power in New Delhi, it requires to be seen how much support this alliance could get from the Centre at the end of the day,” they said.

UNLIKELY OPTION
While the NC and PDP together can form an alliance with support of other candidates, this formation, according to political observers, is “next to impossible given the divergent stands of the two parties.”