Doomed to fail: The PDP – BJP alliance in Jammu and Kashmir is unlikely to complete its term

The PDP and the BJP formed an alliance government in February 2015.

This was done after a series of deliberations between the two parties amidst a fractured electoral verdict in Jammu and Kashmir.

The rather unwieldy coalition defined by multifarious contradictions ended the uncertainty over government formation in the state.

The state is not autonomous and is disembedded from society. This perhaps has been the case with Jammu and Kashmir for a long time and is not the core theme around which I develop my thesis. Which is that the PDP-BJP government is unlikely to complete six years in office. It will, sooner or later, collapse by the weight of its contradictions.However, what it did not end was the deep political uncertainty that hovers over and is structurally embedded in Kashmir. The government in the state sits atop a ‘two speed’ state- with Jammu going in one direction and Kashmir in another- and a conflicted society in Kashmir.

The coalition has been fraught from its very inception or even preceding that.

Voting in the state took place in a vitiated environment defined by polarization. The PDP sought votes from Kashmiri Muslims by castigating the BJP and using the party’s 44+ as the bogey to get out the vote (GOTV). Kashmiri Muslims responded and a massive voter turnout ensued.

In Jammu, the BJP drew succour from the Modi wave and a polarized electorate. Then after a hiatus, both parties announced a coalition and the government was formed. Both parties assumed a win win situation from the coalition: the BJP got a foothold in Kashmir and the PDP got power.

It would appear that both sought to cannibalize the coalition for their respective ends. The Common Minimum Program (CMP), in this schema, constituted ‘actionable points’ that both the BJP and the PDP saw eye to eye on. Kashmir, however, is not a normal state; it is defined by deep uncertainty and gyrates to an altogether different rhythm.

Platitudinous and hedged and qualified promises in the CMP may sweeten the deal and sound good to its crafters but Kashmir always springs surprises and kills deals.

This time the surprise came in the form of the fallout of the release of Masarat Alam. The PDP government appeared to have considered it a given that its ‘soft separatism’ strategy would indefinitely yield dividends and that it could use separatism to defeat separatism.

But this strategy is – as the Alam affair demonstrates- now vulnerable to diminishing or even zero returns. The obvious strategy of separatists would be to give the incumbent government a hard time; not an easy ride. The PDP does not appear to have recognized this. In a media driven politics, the release of Alam would always have been a dicey affair and would call into question the nature of the PDP-BJP alliance and expose its fault lines and contradictions.

Alam’s release and his re-arrest correspond to this dynamic. But does this necessarily tell us anything about the longevity of the coalition government?

Yes. A lot, in fact.

First, the killings that followed Alam’s re-arrest mean that the government has started on a bad note. These do not allay the perception amongst the people that this government is in a different genre.

The mass disaffection amongst Kashmiris which blows into mass protests follow a pattern: isolated killings by either the police, the army or the paramilitary forces build up in the collective unconscious of Kashmiris and these meld with the general disaffection and discontent, reach a tipping point and then spill on over to the streets.

This is a vicious spiral and cycle that has been observed in Kashmir. If it happens again, the fragile coalition will naturally and inevitably burst at its seams and government will fall.

Critics may point out that this is an iffy hypothesis.

The hypothetical protests may never happen. Maybe. But there are other issues and themes at work. Mufti Mohammad Sayyed-the patriarch of the PDP- is for all interests and purposes looking for a legacy- a political one.

He is gerontocratic and has moved on from being talked about pejoratively in Kashmir to being considered a patriarch of a political party. But the hitch lies in the nature of the legacy he is seeking.

A political legacy would mean and entail instituting a political paradigm in J & K that is a departure from the past. This cannot be bargained with the Centre given that it would be at odds with the BJP’s core philosophy.

A confrontation at some point in time is inevitable. This would lead to a fracturing of the coalition and the fall of the government.

The PDP’s hope would be to milk and exploit the potential fracture and cannibalize it for electoral gains in the elections.

But this is besides the point here and people may have wisened by that times. What is of significance and salience here is the fall of the government. The question now is when would this prognosis come true. I would put my money where my mouth is and give the PDP-BJP government 10-30 months.