J&K sits on a powder keg

Experts have warned of multiple disasters in Jammu and Kashmir due to climatic changes and human intrusion in the fragile ecosystem.
Speaking at a workshop on ‘Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction’ organized by Center for Environment Education scientists, environmentalists and officials said the state was heading towards alternate extreme wet and dry weather conditions which will increase the risk of regular droughts and floods in the Himalayan region.
“The extreme change in weather pattern will hit the agriculture productivity in J&K. Saffron and Apple crop which are considered to be the back bone of state’s economy will see a serious cutback in coming decade,” said Vice Chancellor, SKUAST-Kashmir, Prof Tej Pratap.
He said the fast and early melting of snow in the mountains would lead to frequent floods and subsequent droughts.
“This will also lead to food crisis, internal displacements in the state. If Jhelum River dries up before it reaches Pakistan then there is every possibility that water dispute will escalate and it will be attributed to the violation of Indus Water Treaty,” Prof Pratap said.
According to him, this crisis would also affect the ability of state to generate hydro power.
“However, we can prevent such a situation from arising by adopting multi-pronged strategy like removing encroachments, switching to alternate and environment-friendly solar energy,” the vice chancellor added.
M. Saleem Beg, member National Monument Authority of India attributed September 2014 floods to faulty urban development and building plan.
“It was due to encroachment over Jhelum embankments and blockage of traditional waterways,” he said.
Beg said the successive regimes had allowed encroachment on water ways and wetlands.
“This has lead to overflowing of Jhelum which in turn deluged the whole Kashmir. Now the floods are heading towards Wullar Lake due to wrong flood defense,” he said.
Sonam Lotus, Director Meteorological Department informed the participants about the trends in weather which lead to floods last year.
“There was warning issued by MeT department about extreme low pressure followed by huge precipitation and subsequent rains. However, we were not expecting such a huge rainfall to the amount of 240 mm. No weatherman’s prediction can be hundred percent correct,” he said.
“Our predictions are only 70 to 80 per cent correct and that too for few days. No weatherman can predict weather on a stretch.”
Lotus blamed gradual temperature rise and localised cloud development for this off-track weather prediction.
Chief Engineer Irrigation and Flood control Department, Javid Jaffar also blamed “uncertain weather conditions” for floods.
“There were certain mistakes from us also like faulty railway and roadways. However, the flood of such a huge magnitude couldn’t have been stopped,” he said.
He admitted lack of funds for the development of anti-flood defense mechanism.
“We have submitted multi-crore project proposals to Government of India. However, that is yet to be approved. Government has so far released Rs 97 crore which is not enough to create proper flood mechanism,” the chief engineer said.
Chief Town Planner Srinagar Development Authority (SDA), Iftikhar Ahmad Hakim said the new master plan should focus on creating flood basin which will accommodate excess water.
“The huge amount of water accelerates the flood sources which need a strong pre-flood planning. We committed many blunders like allowing construction on the natural habitat. Srinagar was a city of seven bridges but we allowed more bridges which led to uneven flow in the river and then the banks breached,” he said.
Others who spoke at the workshop included Udhayan Mishra of ICIMOD, Abdesh Kumar and Joydeep.