95 Days of Uprising; Kashmir, New Delhi locked in Who-Blinks-First

Though the dark humor somehow reflects the current situation but the reality has been quite different. The 2016 uprising has had been unprecedented in many ways.

As a government employee from Tral was compelled to visit his Lal Chowk office after two and a half months of strike, he chuckled over what he termed as ‘abnormally normal’ situation in the city:
“2010 manz vonukh shahrik din kalle ti gaamik din alle, magar az chi kalle ti aes divaan ti alle ti aes (In 2010 it was decided that people from city will give heads and people from rural areas will provide gourds (metaphor for relief) but this time it is rural people who are giving both heads and gourds).” The office erupted in a laughter.
Though the dark humor somehow reflects the current situation but the reality has been quite different. The 2016 uprising has had been unprecedented in many ways.
Three months into the uprising and Kashmir stands amidst a sea of contradictions with minority but crucial urban centres limping with life and majority but scattered rural areas holding the fort of strike with an air of defiance. In between there are those precariously perched on a boundary, unable to let go dream of freedom but equally apprehensive whether strategy of resistance leaders is going to work.
8 July, 2016, will always be remembered, as they say, when the dynamics of geo-politics changed in Kashmir. There was an uprising like many in previous eras but it was for the first time that it was led by rural centres. “If we go into the history we are unable to find any evidence where rural centres had led the uprising in contemporary Kashmir for such a longer period. Be it Shawlbaaf agitation (1865), Silk factory agitation (1920-24), Central Jail agitation (1931), Anti-Sheikh Abdullah arrest agitation (1953), Holy Relic agitation (1963) or uprisings as recent as 2008 and 2010, all were led from Srinagar city and rural centres followed. But this time it is completely different,” said a university professor. “It was in the rural Kashmir where it (uprising) started and where it has been sustained. Most of these areas were immune even during the height of violence in 1990s but in 2016 they became epicenters.”

As the uprising enters fourth month, there is an eerie silence in the hinterlands. The usual life activities have come to a halt, teens on roads and elders on shop fronts practice and discuss uprising respectively.

Deadly 24 Hours
On July 8, at around 6 PM news circulated that there is an encounter in Kokernag. Soon there was a murmur that Burhan is trapped followed by the confirmation of his death. At Bandipora town a group of friends were just hanging out when they heard the now-confirmed news. They at once hired a Sumo, paid him Rs 1800 to reach Tral to attend the funeral. Within minutes the scene was replicated in Srinagar, Baramulla, Kupwara and even Chenab and Pir Panchal valleys as youths scrambled to reach Tral before government barricades all roads. The charisma of Burhan was working. People streamed to reach the unknown place not knowing what stares at them.
“We knew it (curfew) is going to happen, so we set out to pre-empt the forces,” said one of the youth from Bandipora who was part of estimated two lakh people that participated in funeral prayers of Burhan while waiting whole night under open sky.
Right after the encounter South Kashmir was on edge, protests and marches had already begun. And response from security agencies was equally fearsome. In just 24 hours, 21 persons were shot dead, one every 69 minutes. As a correspondent in Anantnag, Khalid Gul, later recalled, “There were so many deaths that I had no time to describe all. All I could write was ‘He was killed here and he was shot dead there.”
The marked difference about the deaths was that they happened in remote locations even far from town centres. Zubair Ahmad of Kulpora Quimoh was the first to be killed. He was shot dead within hours of Burhan’s death at a place around 18 km from Anantnag town. Similarly Ajaz Ahmad died in reported forces’ firing at distant Pohru village. Larno Kokernag around 40 km from Anantnag town hosted another death. Damhal Hanjpora, Kond Devsar, Verinag, Pahalgam, Achabal followed. Security agencies later justified that they had apprehended the situation and beefed security in Tral where they thought centre of action would be, but the uprising defied all predictions.
One more time the uprising proved Kashmir to be unpredictable. Even after 70 years of protest management, forces remained clueless how to handle Kashmir. The use of “Force Only” strategy backfired flaming the passion.
The third day saw six more getting killed and toll was shooting up quickly. Curfew, shutdown, restrictions, ban on mobile and internet proved too late too little. The fire had already consumed Kashmir and lakhs were on roads.
The observers term 2016 uprising as the one with highest level of participation. “If not in number of killings, 2016 uprising still is a record as far as scale and duration is concerned,” said a professor. “For lethality the credit goes to 1953 agitation when an estimated 1500-2000 civilians were killed within days. Though at that time people were protesting against Sheikh Abdullah’s arrest but government response was the most brutal one. Unfortunately Kashmir never documented those killings and it remains in memories only and scattered in literature.”
Agha Ashraf Ali writes in his biography, “When Sheikh Abdullah was arrested Indian Army used Light Machine Gun on people in South Kashmir. There was one Parsi Brigadier Billmoria, who visited Agha Nasir the then DC Anantnag and gave him the news. The incident had shattered the Brigadier and he later resigned from Army.”
63 years later South Kashmir had to again face the guns along with other areas. Of the 93 killed during the last three months of uprising, 90 percent of fatalities were recorded in villages and rural areas outside of Srinagar city. Barring Ganderbal, people were killed in all the districts. Though hundreds were injured and arrested in Ganderbal too.

Achievements
Apart from the local folklore where people took a pinch of earth from Burhan’s grave, the militant commander continues to live in collective imagination. It was perhaps for the first time that a Kashmiri militant figured in New York Times editorial and was mentioned at a speech in UN. Three months on, the name is nowhere near to be erased.
The biggest achievement of the 2016 uprising has been the highlighting of Kashmir situation at global level. All world powers, UN, Human Rights Organisations, Amnesty and other have expressed their concern on Kashmir. “The world almost panicked when India and Pakistan came to blows and there was danger of nuclear showdown between the two. So as of now there is heightened awareness that Kashmir is nuclear flashpoint and for the future it is good,” said Dr Showkat Hussain, professor of international law and human rights. “The second thing is that all those sainik and pandit colonies are now forgotten. No government will dare to play with fire. BJP which came to power with the agenda of abrogation of Article 370 may infact have to add to the autonomy factor.”
The uprising has also led to creation of whole new generation of Kashmiris who are more than willing to jump into separatist arena. “Burhan was the product of 2010 uprising. Similarly the effects of 2016 will be seen many years into the future,” said Hussain.
Regarding Pakistan, Hussain said that the country defied everybody’s expectation by wholeheartedly supporting Kashmiris. “Previously they had some doubt on Kashmiris but this time their support was much stronger than 1965 when Zulfikar Bhutto was foreign minister,” said Hussain. “It was also beyond Indian expectation. They too were surprised and infact taken on the back foot.”
Hussain said that New Delhi might be putting up a brave face by ignoring Kashmir but in reality they are having a hard time in explaining to world the real situation. “Be it UN, their media, or their meetings, everywhere Kashmir is there,” said Hussain. “They can’t escape it and we hope that it will bring something better for us.”
Another achievement has been the sustainability of economy, which has never seen such self reliance.

Current Situation
HMT, Bypass, Pampore, Nagbal and Harwan had become boundaries where people feel that they are traveling from one time zone to another as there is marked intensity of shutdown on one side than the other. “From Chrar i Shareef towards Srinagar, one can feel that there is a no-man’s land and boundary at Kanipora. From there onwards there is some semblance of life otherwise in Chrar i Shareef there is complete shutdown,” said Altaf Ahmad who works with a merchandise company. “Similarly I have experienced in other districts too.”
Given the vastness of rural areas there had been low deployment of security forces that allowed easy access of people to assemble and march. “In Srinagar there is trooper every ten steps and they don’t allow even assembly of four persons. If they have to control villages on the same level too then they need to triple the forces strength in the state,” said a businessman from Downtown. “That also gave breathing space to rural areas.”
The uprising also broke the record of things that were banned. “Jamia Masjid was and is still out of bounds for Friday prayers, Eid Nimaz was not allowed at many places, mobiles service was snapped and still only partially functioning, mobile internet still remains shut off, news papers were banned, several social sites were blocked and so on,” said Arshid Sofi, a research scholar. “This in a way depicted people power. Now tell me is all this necessary to control just 5 percent of population.”

What Next
As the uprising entered the fourth month, the situation seems to be locked in who-blinks-first situation. “New Delhi has its ego and there is a strategy to deny any sense of achievement to Kashmiris. This is a psychological war,” said Hussain. “On our side sustaining mass mobilization for such a long period is difficult though people have shown exemplary commitment. We are hoping that 2016 will yield something positive for Kashmir.”
Other experts opine that New Delhi is hoping that Kashmiris will grow wary of shutdown and situation will become normal for now whereas on the other hand separatists feel they have upper hand and New Delhi will be forced by combination of domestic and international pressure to come to their terms. “We have sacrificed heads and not some vegetables like gourds. Till the time we have strength we will go on, rest is up to Allah,” said Abdul Rahman from Kulgam at SKIMS while visiting an injured relative.