Governor’s Rule in J&K, what next?

Jammu and Kashmir came under Governor’s rule on January 9 as no party staked the claim to form the next government, and the deadlock between PDP and the BJP continued. The question is: What next?
Should the state go for fresh elections enabling parties to seek a decisive mandate? Should PDP-BJP revive what both the parties call an “informal dialogue” for government formation? Should PDP-BJP look for other options for grabbing power? Should Governor’s rule be prolonged to let the dust settle?
And then the question for the Muftis – what shall PDP do?
Writing on this subject once again, I was laughingly recalling how my friend Shujaat Bukhari, the Editor of Rising Kashmir, teased me after receiving my last article on the subject. “Kotah lekhakh ath peth?”
But Shujaat knows that politics is my passion. Government formation is the question hounding the state today, and I again choose to write on the same subject.
Leading writers of Kashmir flooded newspapers over the last few weeks on the question of government formation. The majority opinion emerging from the write-ups in Kashmir newspapers is against a PDP-BJP combine.
Conditions put by PDP for an alliance with BJP were discussed in the minutest detail. Most thinkers and opinion makers cautioned PDP of the dangerous consequences of aligning with BJP.
In national media, leading columnists opined that for the BJP, with its right-of-centre, nation-first positioning, to tie-up with a party that rationalizes soft separatism would be an enormous leap of faith.
Some writers rightly wrote that for the PDP and its leader, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, joining hands with the BJP runs the risk of rivals in the valley accusing him of bringing back Hindu raj.
But I have been maintaining since December 23 – actually even before the results were announced – that such an alliance is not going to be quick and easy. The mandate that has emerged suggests that a deal between PDP and BJP leading to the formation of government, is the only way forward in Jammu & Kashmir. I still believe that Governor’s rule cannot, and should not continue for long.
The overwhelming majority of population in J&K wants a democratically-elected government in place at the earliest. They did not vote in such large numbers for Governor’s Rule. People are craving for a democratically elected government because the accessibility of an elected representative is easy, and power is  decentralized to grass-root level. We know the Governer’s Rule is an arrangement likely to remain for the minimum possible period, yet the state must work towards restoring democracy at the earliest. What is the way-out?
Though unimaginable a few weeks ago, I feel that a PDP-BJP alliance is the only viable alternative to Governor’s rule or a fresh election. No doubt this would be risky for both the parties. But the truth is that the state has plunged into a worst kind of political and economic crisis. The common man wants an immediate end to this crisis.
I am sure PDP will be happy if elections are held afresh. In that case the party will definitely consolidate in Kashmir and improve its tally by 10 or more seats. However, the PDP leadership has to display political astuteness once again. Fresh elections will cost the state dear. People cannot afford that the moral code of conduct be enforced for three more months. Stalemate in government formation is affordable, but plunging the state into fresh elections and suspension of the administrative functioning will be a grave injustice to the people of the state.
The PDP leadership has taken a politically correct decision by not siding with BJP in haste for the sake of power at the cost of its political ideology. This will convey to the valley that PDP stands for their rights and interests. But what beyond that? The majority vote of the valley has gone to PDP. A government without PDP will be patently unfair on the valley.
Hence PDP has to be in power in the state, and also be in the driving seat.
At the same time, a government structure that leaves BJP out will be patently unfair to Jammu. Such a power structure will keep out the party that won two-thirds of Jammu’s seats. I still believe that no other combination can add up to a wholesome people’s mandate.
In such a scenario, what about the fears being expressed by a host of our writers and opinion makers?
There is an argument that the “spin doctors” of Mufti Sayeed are unnecessarily stretching the Jammu mandate too far.
The question is: If a rigged election of 1987 could force the peace-loving Kashmiris to take to arms and declare war against the Indian might, will a communally surcharged community not push the state in the worst kind of communal tension?
Professor Hameeda Nayeem has argued that if Jammu and Kashmir is a single political entity, why divide it on the basis of mandate? This is exactly what I say. Jammu and Kashmir is a single political entity. It is in the best interest of the people of this state to move together.
One has to understand the underlying fact – BJP, which practically monopolized the Hindu-majority seats in Jammu 2014, represents an unprecedented mandate. This will not be repeated easily. Voters from Jammu have not given the party so many MLAs to sit in opposition. They want it to be part of the power structure, whatever the costs and compromises. This is similar to the pressure that the BJP leadership encountered in 1996. The election that year gave it only 161 seats in the Lok Sabha, but as the single-largest party it was obligated to stake its claim.
The highest level of political maturity is now needed to balance the mandate for the overall good of the state. Mufti is steel-headed, and has not hastily allied with BJP despite being out of power for six years. He has also not yielded to tactical  pressure by BJP, first by demanding a Hindu Chief Minister and then by tactically announcing that they are also courting the NC to explore government formation.
The option of allying with the right wing party is highly risky for Mufti, but it is the only option. At the root of the optimism towards a BJP-PDP coalition is an enlightened assessment of Jammu & Kashmir’s future.
So what is delaying matters between PDP and the BJP? Hard-headed political sense. A swift marriage is neither possible, nor would it be advisable in terms of messaging to the base.
The only silver lining in the imposition of Governor’s Rule is that people will get time to come out of the influence of politicians who had divided them on the basis of region or religion. Even if the parties fail to cobble up a government, still credible elections will be held, wherein people will keep in mind the stability of the state first. In the meantime, political outfits must also learn a lesson from the given situation – that what goes around comes around. They had divided people to unite themselves in power, but it went the other way round. People divided them to have a united power even if it cost them democracy.

Author can be mailed at bashirinkashmir@gmail.com